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dc.contributor.author王博庆en_US
dc.contributor.authorWang, Bor-Chanqen_US
dc.contributor.author吴水威en_US
dc.contributor.authorShoei-Uei Wuen_US
dc.date.accessioned2014-12-12T02:18:30Z-
dc.date.available2014-12-12T02:18:30Z-
dc.date.issued1997en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#NT860118053en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11536/62652-
dc.description.abstract经由实际录影调查的车流资料显示,车流于自由车流与拥挤车流两种不
同的状态下呈现不同的车流型态,而且从一车流状态进入另一车流状态时
,车流速率有跳跃的情形发生。然而,一般传统的巨观交通车流模式,不
论是单一阶段或是多阶段的交通车流模式,当车流跨越自由车流阶段与拥
挤车流阶段等两种车流状态时,在车流流量及车流密度微量变动下,均无
法解释车流速率发生跳跃的行为。 因此,近年来国外学者尝试利用尖
点型突变理论的突然跳动性及双重模态性等基本特性来构建交通车流模式
,并预测交通车流速率特性的变化。过去在国内探讨突变理论应用于交通
车流上的文献极为少数,并且未有混合车流之研究,故本研究除了引用尖
点突变数学模式来构建交通混合车流模式外,并应用该车流模式进行国内
混合车流特性的分析,探讨不同机车混合比例在该模式的应用下,所适用
之机车小客车当量值。 本研究车流模式的构建基础,系根据Hall等学
者于近几年(1987至1995)在交通车流模式上应用突变理论之观念及模式
构建架构,再配合国内混合车流特性调查资料,以回归分析最小平方法对
尖点型突变曲面作曲线拟合求取模式系数,建立一包含车流速率、流量及
密度等三个变数的尖点型突变交通混合车流模式,并根据车流速率观测
值-预估值的标准差及判定系数来判断该模式对混合车流要素预测的准确
性。由实例分析第一部份得知,尖点型突变交通车流模式不仅可以一个数
学模式表现出两种不同型态的交通混合车流,并可以呈现出车流速率发生
跳跃的特性,而且在车流速率值方面有不错的预测能力。由实例分析第二
部份得知,不同机车混合比例将 影响机车小客车当量值的选用,且
机车小客车当量值会随着机车混合比例的增加有下降的倾向。
Via the data analysis of earlier studies, the traffic flow has
two different regimes—the free-flow regime (the uncongested
regime), and the congested regime—as if there is a jump between
two regimes. When the traffic flow jump from one regime to the
other, the conventional macroscopic traffic flow models, neither
single-regime nor multiregime models, can provide a good
explanation for the occurrence of speed change by flow and
density.In recent year, the foreign researchers have tried to
use the Cusp Catastrophe Theory's "sudden jump" and "bimodality"
properties to model traffic flow, and to predict the change of
traffic speed. But the traffic flow model in Taiwan still follow
the tradition framework, and there has no research on traffic
mix flow. Therefore, this study tries to apply Cusp Catastrophe
Theory not only to discuss the domestic traffic mix flow
characteristics, but also to discuss distinct motorcycle mix
ratio under the applying of traffic mix flow model motorcycle's
suitable passenger car equivalent(PCE)The base of this study is
the conceptual framework of Catastrophe Theory applied to
traffic stream model described by Hall etc. From 1987 to 1994,
and we use the domestic traffic flow data with parameters
calibrates by regression analysis least square method for curve
fitting. Then, we get the Cusp Catastrophe Traffic flow Model
with the traffic flow, the speed, and the density variables. We
apply a series of statistical analysis for the model, including
the standard deviation of error and the coefficient of standard
deviation between the observed and predicted values for speed,
as well as indicators of the goodness of fit of the models. The
first part of result shows the Cusp Catastrophe Traffic Flow
Model not only can express two different traffic flow regimes in
one mathematics formula, but also has good prediction in traffic
speed value and realizes the flow feature of speed jump. The
second part of result shows motorcycle's mix ratio will affect
its passenger car equivalent, and motorcycle's passenger car
equivalent has the trend of falling with its changeable mix
ratio.
zh_TW
dc.language.isozh_TWen_US
dc.subject突变理论zh_TW
dc.subject混合车流zh_TW
dc.subject小客车当量zh_TW
dc.subjectCatastrophe Theormen_US
dc.subjectMix Flowen_US
dc.subjectPassenger Car Equivalenten_US
dc.title尖点型突变理论在混合车流上的适用性与模式之研究zh_TW
dc.titleThe Study of Applying Cusp Catastrophe Theorm to The Suitability and Model on Traffic Mix Flowen_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
dc.contributor.department运输与物流管理学系zh_TW
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