我國非語音電信服務之市場調查分析與預測--以工商用戶為例

Abstract

近幾年來，全世界電信事業蓬勃發展，隨著電信自由化、用戶端設備的進 步、四大電信網路的蓬勃發展，傳統的語音已無法符合現在的需求，起而 代之的是數據，圖形、及視訊等非語音的資訊傳輸型態。由此可知，非語 音服務在未來將是高成長的通信需求。本研究以工商用戶為對象，探討其 非語音通信服務使用之意願，並佐以需求預測以了解未來非語音通信服務 市場將呈現什麼樣的走勢。在市場調查方面，本研究以Choffray & Lilien之工業購買反應模式作為本研究架構，探討其在產品認知、接受及 採用階段之影響因素。在需求預測方面，本研究以迴歸模式、羅吉斯模式 、指數模式探討影響非語音通信市場的成長因素及十年成長情趨勢。市場 調查結果發現：非語音服務的認知程度依序為"清楚"、"有概念"、"曾經 使用"。組織屬性、外部環境因素對客戶使用意願有顯著影響。對未來非 語音傳輸需求有顯著性差異。需求預測發現：未來十年中，依保守與樂觀 估計每年大概都有8%~45%的成長率，而造成這麼大差距的主要原因來自於 從認知到使用意願間的時間長短。如何擅用市場需求拉力與技術改善推力 無疑是左右市場成長快慢的重要因子。 Due to the rapid telecommunication technology innovations, theliberalization of global telecommunication market along withthe full development of the four telecommunication networks, the conventional voice services can no longer cope with variouscustomer's demands. Therefore, several non-voice communicationmedia such as digitized data, picture, video has started toemerge as the most promising high growth business. This researchfocuses on exploring the business users by analyzing theirdesire of adopting different forms of non-voice communicationservices and forecasting the market trend of these new services.The conceptual framework of this study is adapted from theindustrial market-response model proposed by J. M. Choffrayand G. L. Lilien. The industrial market-response model is amarketing research technique identifying any special factorthat might affect its effectiveness in the recognition, acceptance and usage of the new product service. For forecastingdemand, this study utilizes these models: the regression model,the logistic model, and the exponential model to analyze thefuture development of the non-voice services.Based on the market survey results, 3 different phases ofrecognition of non-voice communication services are found, whichinclude "clear", "having some sense", "have used before". Inaddition, the organizational attributes and environment structureare found to have significant influences over the user intent ofadopting non-voice communication services. Most non-voicecommunication services seems having outstanding demand in thefuture.In conclusion, the non-voice data communication services shouldenjoy approximately 8%~45% growth for the next decade. And themain factor causing this huge variation is highly depending onthe pace of fastening the phase of user recognition into thephase of purchase desire for the new services. With thesefindings of obtained from the market survey and the demandforecast, we can further understand the and critical issuesof the non-voice communication services market.