長鞭效應之情境分析模式

Abstract

隨著市場環境的日益競爭，過去單打獨鬥的型態如今已難生存，使得企業逐漸重視上、中、下游的的垂直整合，也就是所謂的供應鏈管理（supply chain management）。在供應鏈管理中，如何使生產與銷售的速率達到一致是很重要的課題。然而，卻往往因為下游需求的微小變動便造成上游巨大的生產變異，此長鞭效應（bullwhip effect）現象實是產業极大的致命傷。 有關長鞭效應的研究，國外學者雖已有探討，但至今卻仍缺乏一個完整性的研究方法，探討的層面過窄且難免有所疏漏。因此，本研究提出一長鞭應情境分析模式，以對長鞭效應的研究提供一個系統性的分析架構。此情境分析架構分為供應鏈結構、各階層產銷管理決策行為、終端顧客需求型態三個層面來進行，每個層面下可繼續拓展更細部的因素。如此便可依各個供應鏈情境特性的不同，構建適當的供應鏈情境，繼而以一個有系統的方式逐屋剖析該產業長鞭應的各種可能成因，協助各階層管理者都能明瞭自身的決策會對供應鏈造成種程度的擾動，以做出較佳的決策讓整體產業的利潤最大化，提昇整體企業競爭力。

Due to serious competition of the business environment, enterprises pay more attention to supply chain management. An important issue of supply chain management is to match the production rate to the actual sales rate from the consumers. However, a small fluctuation of demand in reail stores always causes higher demand fluctuation in its upstream. The phenomenon is known as the “bullwhio effect,” this effect is a great threat to an enterprise. The bullwhip effect has been studied for several years, but there exits no comprehensive for its analysis. Therefore, this study proposed a comprehensive model for analyzing the scenarios of bullwhip effect. The model divedes the causes of bullwhip effect into three parts: the structure of a supply chain, decision makings of indiviual echelon, and customer demand. Each part could be extended to involve more detail factors. Also, we can construct a proper scenario according to the characteristics of a supply chain, and then analyze the Bullwhip Effict step by step. It makes managers realize how their decision affects a supply chain, and helps them make better decisions to maximize profits and enhancing to enterprise productivity.