标题: | 长鞭效应之情境分析模式 A Comprehensive Model for Analyzing the Scenarios of Bullwhip Effect |
作者: | 徐寿政 Shyu, Show-Jenq 巫木诚 许锡美 Wu, Muh-Cherng Hsu, Hsi-Mei 工业工程与管理学系 |
关键字: | 长鞭效应;情境;供应链管理;Bullwhip Effect;Scenario;Supply Chain Management |
公开日期: | 1997 |
摘要: | 随着市场环境的日益竞争,过去单打独斗的型态如今已难生存,使得企业逐渐重视上、中、下游的的垂直整合,也就是所谓的供应链管理(supply chain management)。在供应链管理中,如何使生产与销售的速率达到一致是很重要的课题。然而,却往往因为下游需求的微小变动便造成上游巨大的生产变异,此长鞭效应(bullwhip effect)现象实是产业极大的致命伤。 有关长鞭效应的研究,国外学者虽已有探讨,但至今却仍缺乏一个完整性的研究方法,探讨的层面过窄且难免有所疏漏。因此,本研究提出一长鞭应情境分析模式,以对长鞭效应的研究提供一个系统性的分析架构。此情境分析架构分为供应链结构、各阶层产销管理决策行为、终端顾客需求型态三个层面来进行,每个层面下可继续拓展更细部的因素。如此便可依各个供应链情境特性的不同,构建适当的供应链情境,继而以一个有系统的方式逐屋剖析该产业长鞭应的各种可能成因,协助各阶层管理者都能明瞭自身的决策会对供应链造成种程度的扰动,以做出较佳的决策让整体产业的利润最大化,提升整体企业竞争力。 Due to serious competition of the business environment, enterprises pay more attention to supply chain management. An important issue of supply chain management is to match the production rate to the actual sales rate from the consumers. However, a small fluctuation of demand in reail stores always causes higher demand fluctuation in its upstream. The phenomenon is known as the “bullwhio effect,” this effect is a great threat to an enterprise. The bullwhip effect has been studied for several years, but there exits no comprehensive for its analysis. Therefore, this study proposed a comprehensive model for analyzing the scenarios of bullwhip effect. The model divedes the causes of bullwhip effect into three parts: the structure of a supply chain, decision makings of indiviual echelon, and customer demand. Each part could be extended to involve more detail factors. Also, we can construct a proper scenario according to the characteristics of a supply chain, and then analyze the Bullwhip Effict step by step. It makes managers realize how their decision affects a supply chain, and helps them make better decisions to maximize profits and enhancing to enterprise productivity. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#NT863031020 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/63320 |
显示于类别: | Thesis |