利用無母數迴歸方法分析加速衰變資料之研究

Abstract

本研究針對加速衰變資料,提出無母數迴歸之加速壽命-應力模型.假設不同加速方式 只會影響產品特性之衰變速度,而不會影響產品之衰變趨勢.藉由不同加速方式之間的加速 倍數關係,我們可以得到產品在正常使用情形下之平均壽命.在此以發光二極體為例,對由 加速衰變試驗所取得之資料加以分析,其估計結果相當良好.最後提出一模擬分析驗證之.

We propose a nonparametric regression accelerated life-stress model for accelerated degradation data, which consists of groups of degrading curve data. We assume that different stress levels only affect the degradation speed of the product characteristic, but not the degradation trend. An algorithm is developed for estimating the components of the proposed model. By investigating the relationship between the acceleration factors and the stress levels, we can obtain the mean time to failure of the product under the normal use condition. We apply the procedure to data obtained from anaccelerated degradation test for an LED (light emitting diode) product. The results look very promising. The performance of the procedure is further checked by a simulated example.