電腦網路德菲研究系統之建構及其可行性研究

Abstract

本研究旨在發展一套可在電腦網路上進行的德菲研究的系統，並評估其可行性。藉由相關文獻的回顧與探討，本研究首先簡述電腦輔助調查方法的發展過程，並分析比較了四種電腦網路調查方法的特性（電子郵件、網路論壇、電子佈告欄和全球資訊網），其後探討德菲法的理論背景、施行程序及其特性與應用方式，整理出電腦網路德菲研究系統所應具備的功能，以及相對應的網路調查方法，做為系統發展的設計基礎。 系統的設計和建置過程採用系統發展生命週期法（SDLC），依照問題識別、可行性研究、分析、設計、建置、轉換、維護的程序來進行。在系統的評估方面，專家部份使用捷思評估法（heuristic evalution），藉由專家的經驗和直覺並配合先前學者所整合的準則，描述出系統的人機介面和使用性問題；其後則利用使用者焦點團體評估法，請使用者對於系統的介面、功能和滿意程序進行評估，並進一步了解使用者填寫問卷的決策過程。 研究結果發現：一、網路德菲法研究系統可以發揮網路媒介即時、互動的特性，同時在技術上亦屬可行；二、專家評估多認為系統輔助說明不足，以及輸入時的輔助資訊不良，使用者易迷失，而使用者評估部份大致給與正面評價；三、使用者接受網路德菲研究系統的程度甚高，主要的原因為問卷傳遞快速、回答方便和節省紙張；四、在作答的決策過程部份，多數專家在填寫網路德菲問卷時，多採微調的方法將自己的答案往平均數或眾數移動，並認為透過本方法可以獲得客觀的專家一致意見。而問卷中提供之數據，依使用者所提之重要性排列為上次的答案、眾數、平均數和標準差。

The main purpose of this study is to develop a computer network-based Delphi research system and to evaluate it's feasibility. Through the literature review, this study first described the development of computer-assisted survey methods, and then compared the differences in network survey forms : E-mail, Newsgroup, Bulletin-Board System (BBS) and World Wide Web (WWW). The study then explored the Delphi technique and discussed the required functions of a computer network Delphi research system. The System Development Life Cycle has been employed to the implementation of computer-networked Delphi research system, the development steps included problem recognition, feasibility study, system analysis, physical design, implementation, transfer and maintenance. The heuristic evaluation and user focus group evaluations were both conducted to check the feasibility and usability of the system. The evaluation results indicate that: 1. Network Delphi research system can provide real-time and interactive communication for the Delphi study and is technically workable. 2. Expert’s evaluation showed that more on-line help and prompts were needed to help project manager conduct their task easier. In the other hand, users expressed high satisfaction during their evaluation; 3. Users are willing to adopt networked Delphi research system because the system is faster, more convenient, and uses less papers. 4. When answering the questionnaires, most of users changed their answers slightly toward mean or mode. Among all the data provided by the questionnaire, the users considered the order of mode, mean and standard deviation of their previous answers, in terms of importance, helped them to make the next-round answers.