市區公車高潛力需求路線之研究

Abstract

發展都市大眾運輸系統為我國重要交通政策，而政府每年編列龐大預算補助虧損之市區公車路線，並希望能藉由路線之開放經營，提昇市區公車系統之品質。高潛力需求路線即成為政府善用補貼金額以改善市區公車系統之關鍵性工作。 本研究首先探討市區公車高潛力需求路線之意義、影響路線需求之路線特性，並以多元迴歸分析建立路線營收與路線特性之關係函數。其次，本研究說明找出高潛力需求路線之規劃程序，基本原理在於找出既有路網與主要旅次需求走廊之間的供需落差，並利用前述所建函數，進行新規劃路線之營運績效預測，以及分析其對既有路網之影響。接著再探討高潛力需求路線在市區公車路線開放制度中之意義與運用，根據市區公車路線營運成本，以及路線於未來各年期之盈虧狀況，將路線分級，並擬定合理之補貼及開放方式。最後提出結論與建議。

The development of city public transportation system is an important policy. Our government spends much money every year to subsidize city buses, and hopes to raise the service quality of city buses. High potential need route is a key in the process of improving bus system. This study firstly clarifies the meaning and significance of high potential need route and finds out the bus route characters influencing bus route demand. A regression function of the route demand and the influencing factors of bus route is established. After that, procedure to find out the high potential need routes is formulated based on the deviation of trip demand and current bus services. Then the function established early is used to predict the revenue of these new routes, and the impact of new routes to bus system is analyzed. Finally, the usage of high potential need routes is demonstrated and conclusions and suggestions for this study are outlined.