标题: | 台湾上市公司各产业之类股报酬型态分析─亚洲金融风暴期间之验证(1996.12-1999.12) Analysis on the pattern of investment return among industrial share listings by Taiwan’s public-listed companies ─ an assessment on the impact of Asian financial crisis spanning from Dec. 96 to Dec. 1999 |
作者: | 马武三 Wu-San Ma 吴寿山 Dr. Sou-Shan Wu 经营管理研究所 |
关键字: | 上市公司;各产业类股;平均每股市值;平均每股盈余;本益比;股价净值比;股利收益率;产业类股市值占国内生产毛额值;Listed companies;share listings by industry;average market value per share;average earnings per share;price-yield ratio;share-yield ratio;dividend return rate;contribution of share listings to total gross domestic product |
公开日期: | 2000 |
摘要: | 一九八七年十月,美国股市大崩盘造成世界各主要股市之连锁反应,此现象迅速影响衍生性证券市场及世界上其他证券市场,同样对我国证券市场造成严重影响。一九九八年十月,我国股市几近崩盘,加权股价指数由10,200点跌至5,421点,近因究系为中国大陆导弹威胁或亚洲金融风暴之影响,远因是否为股价过度反应真实价值,则为各方争执。 本研究则透过各种不同的文献探讨,归纳出可能影响证券市场之因素,用以探讨台湾地区股票上市公司各产业类股平均每股市值、平均每股盈余、本益比、股价净值比、股利收益率(殖利率)及总市值占国内生产毛额,在亚洲金融风暴期间对各产业类股发行量加权股价指数之影响关系。 本研究以95%的信赖水准下,就每月底各产业类股中之平均每股市值、平均每股盈余、本益比、股价净值比、股利收益率及产业类股市值占国内生产毛额值等变数对全体上市公司及各产业类股每月底发行量加权平均股价指数间关系,经多元回归分析后产生的结果显示,影响股市六大因素中,以股价净值比最具显着关系,其次为平均每股盈余及平均每股市值,再次为本益比,而股利收益率及产业类股市值占国内生产毛额值则分别仅有与四个及三个产业类股有显着关系,另显示总体经济对股市影响是全面性的,该值应具有高度参考价值,而为考量各产业类股之获利能力及资本结构亦为对股市影响深具参考价值,而股利发放情形,对股市影响并不显着。 The last U.S. stock market crash occurred in October 1987 had triggered major world bourses to tumble in a domino effect, a phenomenon that also quickly swept across the derivative product markers and other global securities markets, sending rippling effects that also severely crippled the listings at Taiwan Stock Exchange. Another financial crisis loomed in October of 1998 sent the TAIEX plummeting, where the weighted index had taken a free-fall from its high of 10,200 points straight down to bottom at an all-time low of 5,421 points, can this be the immediate cause of the missile threats by mainland Chinese authorities or the ripple effects of the Asian financial crisis, or a long-term effect of over-speculated stock valuations, something that has been much debated by many watchers. The study attempts to examine various types of publications in an effort to conclude factors that are likely to impact the stock markets, which can be used to examine the correlation’s among the average market value per share, average earnings per share, price-earnings ratio, share-net value ratio, dividend return rate or yield, and contribution of share listings to the gross domestic product on shares listed by public-held firms in Taiwan against the fluctuations of the weighted stock index on various types of local share listings during the particular period hit by the Asian financial woes. The study takes to a 95% reliability level in evaluating the correlation’s of the variables, including the month-end industrial average market value per share, average earnings per share, price-earnings ratio, share-net value ratio, dividend return rate and industrial share market value to GDP against the fluctuations to weighted share index on the total shares issued at each month’s end by public-listed companies. And findings derived from the multiple reversal analysis indicate that of the six major factors that impact the stock markets, share net valuation has the most onerous correlation, followed by earnings per share and market value per share, trailed by price-earnings ratio, whereas dividend return rate and share listing valuation to GDP are merely linked to four and three share listings by industry respectively. Moreover, what has been indicated also shows that the overall economy plays a key role to the impacts felt by the stock markets, hence the ratings do offer valuable reference points, yet noteworthy is that the state of dividend distribution has virtually very little impact to the stock markets. |
URI: | http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#NT890457018 http://hdl.handle.net/11536/67403 |
显示于类别: | Thesis |