投資行動電話產業之決策分析

Abstract

高科技產業之重大投資決策, 除了專業技術與人力之考量外, 往往涉及龐大資金需求, 並承擔極高的失敗風險。 本論文之研究目的是以國內一家通訊廠商為研究案例, 研究在競爭極為激烈的行動電話產業裡, 進行任何一項重大投資前, 如何運用一套有系統的決策分析程序與方法, 依據所蒐集到相關該通訊廠商與行動電話產業等資料, 分析所有可能面臨之重大不確定性因素, 再據以建立各種分析模式, 並進行有系統的分析與評估, 提出決策建議案供決策者做決策時參考。目的在於降低決策錯誤的風險, 並做出當前之最佳決策。本論文係採用Applied Decision Analysis LLC 所發展專業決策分析軟體 DPL (Decision Programming Language), 協助建立各種 DPL分析模式, 依照決策分析程序四大步驟, 即Framing, Modeling & Data Collection, Evaluation, Decision & Integration, 就所蒐集到相關資料之多寡, 進行程度有別之有系統決策分析。 該通訊廠商所面對之投資決策是投入行動電話產品開發與生產, 抑或先行投入無線通訊模組開發與生產, 還是不宜投入行動電話產業。本論文透過有系統的決策分析程序與方法之運用, 獲得之決策建議案與該通訊廠商實際所採行之決策不謀而合, 進一步驗證了有系統的決策分析程序與方法, 對高科技產業之重大投資決策具有實質的輔助作用。

For any significant investment in high-tech industry, apart from the consideration of expertise and manpower, it will normally link to huge capital demand and high failure risk. The research purpose is to take one domestic telecommunication company as an example and to investigate, prior to a significant investment, how to capitalize on a systematic decision analysis process and method to analyze all the possible uncertainties on the basis of the gathered data. Through the built-up of various analysis models and the proceeding of systematic analysis and evaluation, the decision proposals can be formed and provided to decision-maker for reference during the final decision making. The purpose is to reduce the risk of wrong decision and to make the best decision at the moment. This research makes use of one professional decision analysis software DPL (Decision Programming Language), developed by Applied Decision Analysis LLC, to help build a variety of DPL analysis models, and conducts different level of analysis on the basis the volume of gathered data. The whole process is in accordance with the main four steps of decision analysis, i.e. Framing, Modeling & Data Collection, Evaluation, Decision & Integration in sequence. The investment decision that the company had met includes proceeding to development and production of GSM handset, or proceeding to development and production of wireless communication module first, or not entering into cellular phone industry. Through the utilization of systematic decision analysis process and method, the decision proposal come up in this research is in accord with the final decision made by the company. The research result has proven that a systematic decision analysis process and method can provide auxiliary effect to the decision making of significant investment in high-tech industry.