家戶特性與汽、機車持有數及使用量關係之研究－以台北市為例

Abstract

過去政府多認為機車為腳踏車邁入汽車之過渡性運具，因此常忽略對機車進行持有及使用管理，而使得近二十年來汽、機車數量同時增加，道路容量無法負荷，產生之交通問題日漸嚴重，尤其是以地狹人稠的都市最為嚴重。以往研究多認為汽、機車之持有及使用應以家戶為決策單位，且家戶特性會影響持有及使用汽、機車之決策，但是多由成本或效用角度來探討汽、機車持有及使用情形，甚少由家戶特性角度進行分析。有鑑於此，本研究乃嘗試由家戶特性角度分析汽、機車持有及使用情形，以瞭解家戶變化對汽、機車持有數量之影響，與家戶內汽、機車使用量之關係。 本研究藉由系統分析方法，結合相關研究結果，分別建立家戶汽、機車持有數量座標架構，與家戶內汽、機車使用量結構關係，作為分析家戶汽、機車持有及使用情形之依據。然後以家戶汽、機車持有數量座標架構為基礎，利用卜瓦松迴歸模式建立家戶汽、機車持有數量模式，分析家戶特性對汽、機車持有數量之影響。並且利用結構方程式模式建立家戶內汽車使用量關係模式、家戶內機車使用量關係模式與家戶內汽機車間使用量關係模式，以驗證家戶內汽、機車使用量結構關係。 本研究以台北市家戶作為實證分析對象，蒐集到台北市家戶特性及車輛特性資料，分析台北市家戶汽、機車持有及使用情形。以此資料校估持有數模式與使用量關係模式，依據其校估結果，深入分析家戶特性對汽、機車持有數量之影響，與家戶內持有之汽、機車使用量關係及影響因素。研究結果顯示家戶內持有之汽、機車數為一競爭關係，且各種家戶型態持有汽、機車數量為不盡相同的類型。家戶內持有之汽車使用量與機車使用量間具有競爭關係，且汽車使用量會負向影響機車使用量。大眾運輸確實能減少家戶持有機車數，因此政府應持續發展大眾運輸，但應配合機車管理策略才能減少機車使用量，讓家戶放棄持有機車，有效減少機車數量。

This study is undertaken to explore the relationship between household characteristics and the amount of the car/motorcycle ownership in the household, and the relationship between the amount of the car usage and that of the motorcycle usage in the household. When the household characteristics have changed, the amount of the car/motorcycle ownership in households usually followed to chang. So an analytical framework for the amount of the car/motorcycle ownership in household was developed, and then the structural relationship between the amount of the car usage and that of the motorcycle usage was built to other analytical framework. This study tries to apply Poisson regression model to formulate the amount of the car/motorcycle ownership in the household, and use structural equation modeling to test and verify the structural relationship between the amount of the car usage and that of the motorcycle usage in the household. The empirical analysis is done for Taipei city based on a disaggregate data set of individual households, which is obtained from previous research about the household interviews conducted in Taipei city in 2001. The main findings of the empirical analysis show that the amount of the car ownership and that of the motorcycle ownership in the household are competitive, and various kinds of the household types own the different number of car/motorcycle. The amount of the car usage and that of the motorcycle usage in the household are competitive, and the amount of the car usage affects negatively to the amount of the motorcycle usage. The public transportation can reduce the amount of the motorcycle ownership, but the authorities must manage the amount of the car/motorcycle ownership and usage at the same time, the effect of reducing the number of the car/motorcycle ownership is significant. The results of this study provide a set of valuable information to help the authorities to establish related policies for the car/motorcycle ownership and usage in the future.