因應需求變動、競爭性供需互動與國際航空公司聯盟之航空網路設計研究

Abstract

One of the most important problems airlines encounter is the design of their air service networks. The extreme complexity of designing an airline network is due largely to the need for transportation facilities to meet passenger demands efficiently. Analyses on passenger demand patterns, passenger choice behavior and airline market shares are of priority concern in the planning and design of an airline network. In previous studies of airline network design, passenger demand pattern is assumed to be exogenous, and demand is assumed to be inelastic. In such airline network design studies, the reliability and performance results of network designs, apart from short-term demand fluctuations, are generally not evaluated. The uncertainties with regard to competitive interactions are rarely considered in previous game-theory-based models of airline competition and network design studies. Moreover, few studies have been devoted to constructing network models for studying the airline alliances. This dissertation is composed of five research subjects in airline network design problems, including multiobjective programming with grey numbers towards airline network design, reliability evaluation for airline network design in response to passenger demand fluctuations, determining flight frequencies on an airline network with demand-supply interactions and competitive interactions in competitive environments, and airline network design for international airline code-share alliances. This study first developed a multiobjective programming with grey-number-based demand inputs for designing an airline network aimed at minimizing both the airline operating costs and the passenger travel costs. Next, this study developed a reliability evaluation model based on chance-constrained stochastic programming and provided a fine-tuning process of flight frequencies to tackle the short-term demand fluctuations for designing an airline network. Furthermore, this study integrated airline network design and market share analysis into one model, aims to analyze the impact of flight frequency/airfare options on passenger choices and airline market shares, and to incorporate demand-supply interaction into network design models. A fuzzy-logic-based competitive interaction model was further developed to describe the uncertain competitive interactions and evaluate the equilibrium of airline competition. Finally, this study combined the airline network design model and market share model with the interactive multiobjective programming techniques to design both the integrated alliance-based network and alliance partner airlines' networks and analyze the impact of the code-share alliance network on market demand, airline profit, and passenger level of service. The results of case studies verify that the models are practical and demonstrate that how multiobjective programming, reliability evaluation, competitive demand-supply interactions and alliance interactions might be considered in designing airline networks. The models proposed in this dissertation provide highly effective tools that enable planners to assess the impact of changes in passenger demands and competitive environments on network design performance by taking demand variability, competitive demand-supply interactions and airline alliance interactions into account. Results in each part of the study shed further light into operational planning, performance-related issues, airline competition and alliance issues in airline network design.