上市公司財務危機與轉投資活動關係之研究

Abstract

公司從事轉投資活動，其主要目的乃是希望增加公司的獲利能力，但是在近年來的轉投資活動，卻無法達到此項目的，而國內外的研究，主要著重於轉投資的行為特質與其績效表現，探討「轉投資活動是否引發財務危機」，此方面之研究並不多見，故本研究旨在探討，公司轉投資活動與財務危機之關係。本研究以台灣上市公司為研究對象，本研究定義財務危機之年度為發生股票變更交易方法為全額交割方式或停止買賣之當年，研究期間則為發生財務危機之前3年。以Mann-Whitney-U 檢定財務危機公司與正常公司之財務因素與轉投資因素是否存有差異，採用羅吉斯迴歸建立研究模型，比較單純的財務比率與加入轉投資活動因素之財務危機預警模型，在模型解釋能力與模式之正確區別率是否存有差異。實證結果，財務危機與正常公司之財務因素與轉投資因素存有差異；在加入轉投資因素建立之危機預警模型，無論是在模型解釋能力或是在模式之正確區別率上，均優於單純財務比率所構建之危機預警模型。

Companies engage in diversified investment are supposed to gain profit, but the results not always as expected. This research examines the relationship between the diversification and financial crisis of public companies in Taiwan. A listed company is classified as a Financial Crisis Company if the Taiwan Stock Exchange issues an instruction that the sales of its stock are in the state of full delivery and temporary suspension. Twenty-two sample companies in the period of 1999 through 2001 were used to compare with Forty-four normal cool counterpane companies. Mann-Whitney-U test is employed examine the differences between normal companies and financial crisis companies. Logistic regression was employed to establish the research model. The following conclusions are drawn. 1. In terms of financial ratio, the financial structure and diversified ratio of companies in crisis, are significantly different for normal and crisis companies. 2. With diversified ratio, if is found that financial predict model’s positive explanation and correct distinguish capability are better than original financial predict model in explanation power.