運用模糊多評準決策法建立評估中共可能攻台方案之模型

Abstract

摘要 「建軍、備戰」乃國軍執行國軍使命的基礎，建軍是以「打、裝、編、訓」等四方面來完成軍力的建構；備戰是專注於「作戰時之指揮、管制、通訊、情報獲得等程序」以將戰力發揮至極致，而海峽兩岸高科技武器的獲得、國際環境、政治、經濟、外交及軍事關係之變化，都會影響我國國軍軍力發展。本研究之目的在建立評估中共武力攻台可能方案之模型，它應涵蓋戰略構想研究、陸海空軍軍事能力以及國際政經情勢等評估項目。 本研究運用模糊多評準決策模式，首先以文獻蒐集分析、專家調查、群體腦力激盪等方法及現代戰爭關鍵性分析，篩選出與研究主題有關的準則，並以科技前瞻方法分析中共軍事科技發展趨勢，建構情境並歸納出中共攻台之可能方式及建立評估之架構及準則。 本研究以多評準理論做為模型建立之依據：包括情境分析與判斷、模型建立步驟程序、模型層級結構架設、問卷設計之依據及方式、問卷對象之選擇等。期能藉由「中共攻台方案」評估模型的探究，幫助我們了解國軍的優勢及劣勢，及建軍規劃之優先排序。 研究結果顯示，在「中共攻台方案」中，共有四種較可能之方式：「以戰逼談」、「大規模攻台」、「不接觸作戰」及「準軍事作戰」；而其三類目標構面分別為「對國際關係的影響及美日的介入」、「共軍的作戰能力及戰略」及「國軍反制能力及戰略」；在十五項準則權重方面，較能直接反映我建軍優先順序是「國軍反制能力及戰略」目標構面，其五項準則為「國軍制空能力」、「國軍對戰略戰術導彈反制能力」、「國軍制海能力」、「國軍對特種作戰的反制能力」以及「國軍地面防衛能力」。

Abstract 「Developing military force and preparing for war」is the basis of accomplishing the missions of R.O.C military. 「Attacking、equipping、organizing and training」are the four aspects of developing the military force. Preparing for war is to focus on the control, command, communications and intelligences acquisition procedures at combat in order to bring the military strength to its utmost. The acquisition of advanced technology weaponry across the strait and the changes in the political, economical, diplomatic, and military relationships among nations will affect the criticalness of R.O.C. military force. The purpose of this study is to develop a military force assessment model, which should include research into the missions and requirements of war, the possessed major weaponry, the strategic units of army, navy, and air force, and the scale and effectiveness of the national defense budget, etc. Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making methodology was used to build up the dimensions and criteria of 「the Ways of PLA’s Invasion of Taiwan」model. The military force assessment model can help us understand the strengths and weaknesses of our military forces, and provide us with decisions of improvement to further develop our military force and well prepare for any war. The assessment results showed that there are 4 ways most likely happened in the cross-strait war: the 「achieving negotiation through war」, the 「landing operations war」, the 「non-contacting war」 and the 「quasi-military war」.