奈米碳管之技術商品化---以情境分析法來預測

Abstract

許多公司因為無法將新技術轉化為具有市場價值的產品，最後遭致失敗結果，因此如何推動技術商品化是知識型創業活動必須具備之重要能力。成功的技術商品化，不僅能為公司帶來獲利，更重要的是技術的強化以及商品化經驗之累積與人才的培育，這些都是維持公司成長與競爭力之所在。 因此，本研究欲以技術商品化之觀點來探討奈米碳管之發展，希望能在不同的情形下，發展出一套通用的關鍵成功因素，並針對這些因素找出提升績效的機制。首先透過專家意見法，找出兩個最重要的不確定因素，分別為未來國內奈米碳管產業發展的情況及奈米碳管場發射顯示器市場型態。其次利用此兩個不確定因素發展出三個情境，分別為以政府主導的主導型、政府扮演輔助角色的輔導型，以及以產業為主導的創業型。再利用這些情境推演3至5年內研究中心與民間合作推動奈米碳管技術商品化之情形，最後推論出奈米碳管技術商品化的關鍵成功因素。結果顯示政府政策、集群發展、技術合作、技術培育環境、研究資源、市場需求、產品功能、技術成熟度、廠商之策略聯盟及互補性技術開發等為奈米碳管技術商品化之關鍵成功因素。

Many companies failed in a competitive market because they cannot commercialize their technology. Therefore, it is critical to facilitate technologies as well as knowledge to meet a firm’s strategic and commercial needs out of their entrepreneurial activities. This research focuses on analyzing the key successful factors of carbon nano tube from the viewpoints of technologies commercialization, combining with scenario analysis to simulate conditions that firms should provide under various situations. This study presents the scenarios of carbon nano tube development implemented by the cooperation of research centers and private sectors within 3 to 5 years, generating two uncertain factors, i.e., the future development of domestic carbon nano tube industry, as well as the market state evolution field emission display of carbon nano tube. The conclusions show that government policies, product functions, degrees of technologies maturity, strategic alliances among firms, and complementary technologies exploitation are the key successful factors to commercialize the carbon nano tube technologies.