燃料電池運具之燃料供應站配置密度與市場範圍之研究

Abstract

推廣燃料電池運具可以降低運輸對環境的污染，而設置足夠的燃料供應站，可以滿足消費者需求以達到推廣燃料電池運具之目的。然而，對供應商而言，於初推廣時期，由於規模經濟之限制，增加燃料供應站的配置密度將增加成本；對消費者而言，則會增加日後使用之方便性，故如何在兩者之間進行權衡取捨，為本研究所要探討的內容。 本研究首先蒐集敘述性偏好資料及應用二元羅吉特模式探討消費者對燃料電池運具與燃油運具的選擇機率，由於消費者選擇機率隨與燃料供應站之距離增加而遞減，故可以此關係推導總市場需求量。進一步，本研究以解析性方法，同時考慮燃料電池運具供給成本與需求變數間之關係與架構，其中供給成本包括供應商運輸成本、存貨成本、供應站營運成本，需求變數則包括消費者到燃料供應站的平均可及距離、燃料電池運具之續航力，本研究進一步構建多目標數學規劃模式，在最大化供應商利潤與最大化消費者市場需求量下，分析最適的燃料供應站配置密度與市場範圍。 研究結果證實影響消費者選擇燃料電池運具的因素包括到燃料供應站的可及性、運具售價、使用成本、運具續航力、運具安全性、行銷性 (政府補貼與獎勵措施) 等，依此可瞭解消費者對燃料電池運具引入市場的可能行為反應與偏好程度，及其與燃料供應站配置密度與市場範圍之關係。由台北市各分區所得之最適燃料供應站配置結果，在每一分區約為12~20個，可提供供應商推廣燃料電池運具與配置燃料供應站的參考依據，以達到對改善環境之正面效益。

Promotion of fuel cell vehicles can reduce environmental pollution and benefit for environmental sustainability. Setting up enough fuel cell vehicles’ refueling stations can help achieve this goal due to denser refueling stations provide better access for consumers’ fueling demand. However, on the other hand, denser refueling stations also incur larger logistic costs for supplier due to higher station deployment and fuel transportation costs. How to deal with this trade-off is the focal point of this study. First, we apply the probabilistic choice theory of consumers using stated preference data to formulate a binal logit model on consumers’ choice between fuel cell and petroleum vehicles. Then we further aggregate the consumers’ fueling demand within the market area in a way that the probability of consumers’ choice on fuel cell vehicles decrease with the fueling access distance from consumers’ residential locations. Second, analytical methods are used to analyze the relationship between supply variables affecting refueling stations deployment and logistic costs and demand variables affecting consumers’ demand for fuel cell vehicles. Costs for supplier include logistic costs (transportation and inventory costs) for fuels and refueling station deployment and operating costs. The demand variables include consumers’ fueling accessibility, fuel cell vehicles’ price, range, etc. We further formulate mathematical programming models, with two different objectives, i.e., maximizing the total consumers’ demand and maximizing the supplier’s profit, to determine the optimal density and market size of fuel cell vehicles’ refueling stations. The results of the case study using the survey data of Taipei Metropolitan residents show that consumers’ choice on fuel cell vehicles are significantly affected by consumers’ fueling accessibility, fuel cell vehicles’ price, operating cost, range, safety, and government subsidy. Finally, the study results not only help in understanding the consumers’ behavior on accepting fuel cell vehicles and its relationship with refueling station density but also provide a reference for supplier to promote fuel cell vehicles and determine the density and market size of fuel cell vehicles’ refueling stations, ultimately aiming towards a positive environmental result.