小型國家之脆弱性定位與分群－國際援助方略之基礎

Abstract

本論文從國際援助資源分配的觀點，探討小型國家於全球貿易變革下二個獨立但相關的議題。一是以非最低度開發中國家為主體，為小型國家在全球貿易體制下的相對脆弱程度定位，本文先從多層面觀點，就衡量一國在貿易體制下之脆弱程度提出模型，再利用因素分析及多維尺度法發展出二維的相對位置圖，俾直接觀察小型國家在非最低度開發中國家的相對脆弱程度。另外，目前國際機構研擬小型國家之援助方略時，往往將小型國家視為整個群體；然而，小型國家間的差異極大，並無一體適用的援助方略，若能將小型國家分群，將有助於援助方略之研擬。本文深入探討小型國家間之差異，根據二十五個經社指標，先利用因素分析找出小型國家經社發展的七個共同因素，再以各國之因素得點為投入進行集群分析，研究結果將小型國家分為九群，各群組內國家間的相似度較高，而不同群組間則差異較大。本文針對前述二項研究結果分析後提出其對研擬國際援助方略相關的管理意涵。本研究對如何研訂及整合有效率及有效能的國際援助（包括貿易特殊及差別待遇），提出一個新的方向。

This dissertation focuses on two parallel but related issues regarding the vulnerability position of small states in the global trade regime and the allocation of international development aid resources to them. The relative vulnerability positions of developing but not least-developed countries were first established using a two-dimensional configuration based on multiple aspects of economic vulnerability. A map showing the overall vulnerability positioning of the countries was then created. Differences among small states were further investigated by sub-grouping the subject countries using cluster analysis based on their respective socioeconomic characteristics. Seven common factors were first extracted from 25 key socioeconomic indicators. Cluster analysis based on factor scores was then used to obtain distinct clusters of small states. Nine well-delineated clusters of small states with similar characteristics were thus obtained. Based on these findings, managerial implications for international community, including provisions of differential treatment in the global trade regime shift as well as tactics of international aid, are presented. This research provides new directions to the international community in designing development aid strategies that effectively and efficiently allocate resources among small developing states.