台灣半導體製造業併購機會之研究

Abstract

本研究主要探討在半導體產業中對晶圓廠取得的併購活動之研究。研究主軸有三個；分別是半導體產業發展趨勢的研究、半導體製造業出現併購活動的可能性、以及併購晶圓廠的可能標的。 從產業發展的趨勢，探討那種類型的公司未來對晶圓廠的需求較大，本研究發現影響半導體併購的重要產業趨勢有；晶圓廠8吋和12吋的世代交替、大陸半導體市場的興起、景氣起伏對半導體不同策略群公司的衝擊、微利時代來臨的影響、以及半導體產業整合或分工的發展。 本研究提出半導體製造業仍將出現併購的主要原因；分別為半導體產業景氣難以預測、景氣起伏過大、建廠費用高、追高殺低的資本支出、以及投資遞延效應等等，並得到晶圓代工公司將是未來半導體製造業發動併購的主要公司。 檢視晶圓代工公司，其選擇併購標的時的主要考量為何？ 本研究認為其發生的情況將是；在廠房轉換成本上，同是 Foundry 公司及IDM 公司的晶圓廠是併購公司較感興趣的標的。晶圓的尺吋方面，8吋廠是較有可能選擇的廠房。廠房所在區域以市場的成長性來說，中國大陸是具有相當吸引力的地方。基於客戶的訂單考量，以策略聯盟方式併購IDM公司的晶圓廠，是另一種會採行的行動。為了有效發揮晶圓廠的運轉效率，公司在考慮併購目標時將會考慮到標的公司的所在地是否處在產業群聚之中。

The research focuses on the M&A actions in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. There are three topics in this research, including: major trends in the semiconductor industry, possibilities of causing M&A in the semiconductor industry, and potential target firms to be merged and acquired. The research stresses that there are five major trends that would influence the M&A actions in the semiconductor industry: the new generation of the fabs - 8 inches vs. 12 inches, booming market of the semiconductor products in Mainland China, market cycle’s impact on different strategic groups, influences of the fewer-income age, and the future for the industry- Integration vs. Labor division. The research stresses that M&A actions would keep occurring in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. The reasons are: the difficulty in forecasting the cycle of the semiconductor industry, the magnitude rise and fall in the market cycle, the higher costs of setting up a new fab, the capital expenditure which tends to buy at a higher price but sell at a lower price, and the deferred effect of the investment. The research also concludes that the foundry firm would take the M&A actions to increase its capacities. According to the research, conclusions are: on the basis of switching cost, the foundry firm prefers to buy fabs from Foundry & IDM, 8 inches fabs are preferable to 12 inches ones within this three years, mainland China would be an attractive location for a firm to build its capacities, on the basis of orders-bidding, strategic alliance would be another way for a foundry firm to take over the IDM’s fabs, and target firms should be located in the semiconductor industry clusters for the sake of enhancing its efficiency.