半導體十二吋晶圓製造投資決策分析-個案研究

Abstract

摘 要 半導體晶圓製造業是有著高風險、高利潤以及資本與技術密集的高科技產業，台灣業者經過二十年來的努力，於2000年創下了4,686億台幣的產值，優異的表現已經成為台灣經濟發展的重要命脈。然而在邁入半導體製造新一代12吋晶圓廠的關鍵時刻，卻也面臨了全球半導體市場有史以來最大的衰退期。投資一座滿載的12吋晶圓廠所需要的金額高達30億美元，如此龐大的投資決策其結果勢必將影響整個組織的成敗與興衰。無疑的，這是事業經營上面臨的重大挑戰。 本論文係以系統化的決策流程與包括影響圖、敏感度分析及決策樹為基礎的決策分析架構對個案公司的12吋晶圓廠投資案例進行分析，來幫助業者定義問題、架構問題、評估方案、探討不同決策間的利弊得失與可能的風險程度，找出最適當的投資決策，以降低經營風險並提升企業的競爭力。

ABSTRACT Semiconductor manufacturing industry is a high risk, high reward and high capital investment business. In 2000, which create 468 billions NT dollars revenue, it is essential to the economic development of Taiwan. Now, the semiconductor manufacturing industry is at a critical point of migrate to 12-inch new technology, but at the same time they also face the recession period that never happened before. The capital investment of a fully capacity 12-inch new Fab is around 3 billions US dollars. 12-inch Fab will have a direct impact on the competitiveness of a company, but during this stage, the impact maybe a huge loss. No doubt, this is a big challenge to business operation. This thesis presents a decision analysis framework on the basis of inference diagram, sensitivity analysis and decision tree. The framework can help decision maker in defining and constructing the problems, evaluation the values of alternatives, and reduce risks. We use a capital investment decision case in a 12-inch semiconductor manufacturing Fab, to find out the best way of capacity expansion for the purpose of enhance business competition and reduce financial risk.