太陽能發電量與經濟成長之因果關係研究：以七大工業國為例

Abstract

本文主要欲驗證六大工業國於1980至2010年間之太陽能發電量與實質經濟成長間之動態因果關係。本文運用面板資料，採用共整合檢定、誤差修正模型、因果關係檢定和其他相關計量方法來找出這些變數之間的關係。 六大工業國之檢定結果顯示，短期太陽能發電量與實質經濟成長之間存在一條從太陽能發電到實質經濟成長的單向因果關係，且係數為正。長期則存在從經濟成長到太陽能發電的單向關係。另外，在經濟成長與太陽能發電量之間則存在一條強烈的雙向關係。 故，六大工業國之太陽能發電量越高，會導致越高的經濟成長。各國之政策制定者及管理者都必須要考量到這個結果，增加再生能源之投資及改善能源使用效率。除了對經濟增長的重要性，太陽能的擴張也將減少對國外能源進口的依賴以及受到國際能源市場價格波動的影響，且也會削減長期的碳排放量及環境惡化。所以當國家想要在保護環境的前提下促進經濟成長，就必須要採取雙政策，先是增加在太陽能基礎建設上的投資，再加強長期的節約能源政策，以減少不必要的能源浪費，提高能源效率。節能減排的政策，旨在削減能源使用，而不會影響最終使用效益。而未來可以從環境保護、能源依賴等議題著手新研究，這些議題都是國家政策必須要考慮到的。

The paper examines dynamic causal relationships between solar energy generation and real economic growth in Group of 7(G7) during the period 1980-2008, but excludes the country England because the solar energy generation in England is very small than other countries. The paper using a panel data by the cointegration test, error correction model, causality test and other econometric methods are applied to find the relationships among these variables. The main findings of the results below the following, there is unidirectional causality from solar energy generation to real GDP in the short-run and its coefficient is positive, unidirectional long-run relationship from GDP to solar energy generation and strong bidirectional causality between GDP and solar energy generation. Overall, we find a high level of solar energy generation leads to high level of economic growth. Policy makers and managers need to be aware of the fact, if countries want to protect the environment and promote economy, they should adopt the dual strategy of increasing investment in solar energy infrastructure and stepping up long-run energy conservation policies to reduce unnecessary wastage of energy that also promote energy efficiency. The energy conservation policies that aim at curtailing energy use without affecting the end-use benefits must rather find ways of reducing consumer demand.