都市型態對大眾運輸營運效率之影響： 東亞城市之實證研究

Abstract

隨著GDP快速成長，民眾持有及使用私人運具的比例大幅增加，導致交通日益惡化之情況。公路運輸工具特別是私人運具高度依賴石油，也衍生出環境污染及世界石油快速耗減的問題。故在道路面積及運輸資源有限情況下，如何發展大眾運輸系統使其更有效率，是值得探討的課題。

本研究之目的在探討都市型態對大眾運輸營運效率之影響，以東亞19個城市為研究樣本。首先利用2010年人口密度、人均GDP、老年人口比例等指標進行集群分析，以瞭解東亞城市不同發展的階段之差異性。接著運用資料包絡分析法評估各群城市之大眾運輸營運效率。最後，利用Tobit迴歸模式探討都市型態對大眾運輸營運效率之影響因素，並根據實證研究結果，以提升大眾運輸營運效率為目的，探討可能的都市型態發展策略。

本研究之實證結果顯示：(1)利用二階段集群分析可將研究樣本區分為兩群，由於集群1城市之人均GDP、人口密度、老年人口比例及三級產業比例之平均值均明顯高於集群2，屬於已發開城市；相對的，集群2屬於開發中城市。(2)以資料包絡分析法分析營運效率可發現，不論在何種模式，已開發城市之平均值均明顯高於開發中城市，且各群城市之純粹技術效率平均值較其他效率高，表示投入與產出之間資源配置較佳。(3)各集群之無效率城市可藉由參考比較分析及差額分析提出應改善之方向及大小，並效仿已達到效率前緣之城市。(4)以Tobit迴歸結果發現，環境變數在已開發城市與開發中城市具有不同的影響效果。

With GDP growing rapidly, ownerships and uses of private vehicles have increased dramatically and have worsened traffic situation. Road transportation systems, especially private vehicles are highly dependent on fuel and result in environmental pollutions. Therefore, how to develop public transportation to elevate transportation efficiency has become an important issue.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impacts of urban form on operational efficiency of mass transit by using, 19 cities in East Asian as sample. This study began with a cluster analysis to categorize the sample cities into two groups, the following criteria: population density, GDP per capital and proportion of aging population. Then, this study applied Data Envelopment Analysis to evaluate the relative efficiencies of the sample cities in two groups. Finally, the factors affecting operational efficiency of mass transit were explored by Tobit regression model, and considerable strategies of urban form were drawn based on the empirical evidence.

The major empirical findings are as follows: (1) The sample cities can be categorized into two groups: developed cities and developing cities. (2) The results of DEA show that operational efficiencies of the developed cities were significantly higher than that of the developing cities, and the pure technique efficiency is the highest index among all efficiency indexes. (3) Most sample cities were in the phase of decreasing returns to scale and they need to improve their effectiveness by decreasing inputs of mass transit systems. (4) The results of Tobit regressions indicate that the environment variables result in different effects on operational efficiencies between the two city groups.