台灣半導體設計產業赴中國大陸投資多元區位競合分析

Abstract

本研究以生物生態學Lotka-Volterra自然界物種競爭模型為基礎，以台 灣半導體IC設計產業赴中國大陸投資策略之區域選擇為研究主軸，比較台 灣IC設計業者在中國大陸的京津環渤海地區(華北)、長江三角洲地區(華東)、 珠江三角洲地區(華南)與中西部地區(中西)地區的投資布局之群聚區位的 差異，並進一步剖析四區位間之競合關係以及預測未來趨勢，本研究以四 元Lotka-Volterra動態模型建構出連續型非線性微分方程，並轉換成四個離 散型方程式，利用最小平方法迴歸求解並進行係數分析，建構其彼此間之 競合關係並預測其未來發展趨勢與區位穩定均衡。研究結果顯示，台灣半 導體IC設計業者在中國大陸的投資布局與區位選擇上，華北、華東以及華 南三區不受其他區域的影響，中西部地區會因為中國大陸在不同時期針對 不同區域發展的重視程度與配套獎勵或補助優惠項目，再加上本身區域內 上下游廠商的群聚效應影響，以及因部分區域工資上漲造成營運成本增加 而導致區位重心移轉，進而改變各區域發展的潛力與均衡狀態，半導體設 計產業在中國大陸的發展，雖然中西部地區比沿海其他三區域來得晚，但 研究顯示其未來發展的潛力會超越京津環渤海地區(華北)，且其成長幅度會 遠超過其他沿海省份或城市。

In this study, by using the Lotka-Volterra competition model, we try to analyze the location strategies of Taiwan IC design firms investing in China. We use Taiwan IC design firms’ historical investment amount, from year 1999 to 2012, to China as the indicators of the location strategies. The locations include East-China, North-China, South-China and Middle-West-China in our study. We study the relationship between these four locations when making an investment decision to each area and the trend including the growth rate, potential and the equilibrium relationship among these four locations. The empirical result reveals that the investing strategies of Taiwanese IC design firms to the three locations of East-China, North-China, South-China are not interfered by other locations, however, the investment among in East-China and North-China have positive influences on Middle-West-China’s growth due to some periodical industrial policies of China government. It also results in more growth rate and potential compared to the other three locations. The finding also predicts that the accumulated investing amount in these four areas will grow continually and reach an equilibrium situation after year 2030. The most preferred location will be South-China for Taiwanese IC design firms. These findings can provide global semiconductor enterprises a valuable insight and characteristics about the strategies of investment in China.