從事前規劃面優化國際快遞業恢復力策略

Abstract

近年來天然災害與人為擾動的事件頻傳(例如: 2011年冰島火山爆發、2012年日本福島核災和泰國曼谷水災、2013年德國漢莎航空罷工)，常造成國際快遞業者在路線配送上面臨很高的損失。本研究針對各種可能的擾動情況提出物流恢復力策略，期望透過完善的事前規畫能使國際快遞業者在面臨擾動時所受到的損害降低。 本研究擬探討下列幾項研究課題: (1) 如何定義運輸路網中的擾動事件與影響範圍? (2) 不同擾動情況發生時應使用哪些恢復力策略? (3) 如何發展長、短期恢復力策略? (4) 如何評估物流恢復力策略之投入成本與預期效果? 藉由探討運輸場站擴充與發展運輸工具長短期租賃合約以提升貨物處理與運輸能力之可行性和成本評估，結合路徑選擇模式發展替代運輸路線， 建構一多目標數學規劃模型，來改善國際快遞業者在災難發生時的恢復力。透過 2012 年泰國曼谷水災的實例分析，分析災難事件發生時快遞業者應如何有效的規劃恢復力策略，同時依據本研究發展之物流恢復力指標評估策略投入成本與預期效果的權衡情況。 關鍵字：恢復力策略、擾動管理、多目標規劃

Recently natural disasters and manmade disruptions usually cause significant losses in international express industries, such as the Iceland volcano eruption on 2011, the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan and the Bangkok flooding event in Thailand on 2012, and the German air traffic controllers strike on 2013. In order to reduce the serious impacts of these major disruption events, some proactive resilience strategies are developed in this study. Some research questions are answered in this study: (1) How to define and identify the type of disruption events and impact area? (2) How to quantify and optimize the resilience strategies for different disruption events? (3) How to develop and distinguish the long-term and short-term resilience strategies? (4) To what extent, could we evaluate and measure the investment and corresponding effects of resilience strategies (in terms of money)? A multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming problem is developed for analyzing the tradeoff between the maximization of the product of the throughputs of shipping cargos and their corresponding time dependent value and the minimization of incremental costs of applying resilience strategies. The numerical results are also linked with real flooding event occurred in Thailand on 2012. Keywords: Resilience Strategy, Disruption Management, Multi-Objective Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Programming Problem.