高雄市動態公車資訊系統對於民眾搭乘公車年期影響之研究

Abstract

爲了鼓勵民眾搭乘公共運輸系統,各個國家均建置有公車動態資訊系統。 過去有關公車動態資訊系統的績效評估相關研究，大多是以乘客等待時間的減少或者乘客滿意度的增來來呈現,這些數據通常較缺少足夠的說服力。同时這些過往研究均是針對整個 BIS 系統來加以評估，並無法針對某一個特定功能（設施）來評估其績效。 本研究採用生存分析法來分析民眾因使用動態公車資訊系統後,可以增加的搭乘公車年期,並以此為指標來評估動態公車資訊系統下各子系統的效益,同時還對於不同分類的民眾,分別探討受到各子系統的影響為何。根據本研究使用高雄市的實際調查資料，顯示智慧站牌對民眾的影響最大，在建置智慧型公車站牌之後,民眾搭乘公車的年期增加了六個月,同時碳排放量減少了 1684 公噸。

Real time bus information system (BIS) had been adopted in many countries to promote the usage of public transit. Many previous researches use the passenger satisfaction and the saving of waiting time to evaluate the benefits of BIS. These research usually evaluate the benefits resulted from the entire BIS system, instead of evaluate the benefit of each subsystem (device) individually. Generally, these indexes are not good enough to evaluate the benefits of a BIS system. We propose a survival theory based model to obtain the increment of riding tenure after introducing BIS or each BIS subsystem (device) as our evaluation index. Based on our data collected in Kaohsiung City, intelligent bus stop has the most significant contribution and can result in the increment of riding tenure of about 0.64 months, which future result in increasing 72 million/year NTD fare income and about 1.684 tons/year of CO2 emission deduction.