京都議定書對於減碳政策的影響探討－以OECD國家為例

Abstract

本研究蒐集1980年至2010年間，美國能源情報局之國際能源統計資料庫局（U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA）、OECD iLibrary及世界銀行（The World Bank）之資料，以OECD國家為例，討論價格機制的碳稅制度或數量機制的碳交易制度，何者才是適合的政策。研究方法以STIRPAT模型來檢驗碳排放量和能源價格、人口總數、人均國民所得及其平方項之變數關係；其次透過鄒檢定來探討OECD國家之碳排放是否因京都議定書（Kyoto Protocol）的影響而有所改善。主要結論可歸納如下： 以STIRPAT模型檢定而言，首先，OECD二十六國之樣本顯示，能源價格與二氧化碳呈現負相關，瑞典除外之國家皆適合碳交易；第二，OECD二十六國之樣本無顯著證據可以確認人口與二氧化碳排放量之關係；第三，OECD二十六國之樣本顯示人均國民所得與二氧化碳排放量呈現U型與EKC假說相反。此外，透過鄒檢定可發現，京都議定書簽署前後的確具有顯著的差異。

The cause of global warming was attributed to the carbon emission; therefore, UNFCCC （Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change） enacted the “Kyoto Protocol” in 1997 to regulate global carbon dioxide. Carbon reduction policies include “Carbon Tax” and “Carbon Trading.” By collecting data from 1980 to 2010 via EIA database （U.S. Energy Information Administration）, OECD iLibrary, and the World Bank and taking OECD countries as examples, this study use the STIRPAT model to examine the relationship among Energy Prices Index, Population, GDP per capita and the square of GDP per capita to explore which policy fit for OECD. Furthermore, this research uses the Chow Test to verify that the effect of Kyoto Protocol to the OECD countries. The main conclusions can be summarized as follow. First, among the 26 samples form the OECD countries, all OECD countries except for Sweden fit the Carbon trading policy due to the inelastic ecological elasticity. Second, GDP per capita and carbon dioxide emissions were U-Shape related, which is opposite to the EKC assumption. Finally, the result with the Chow test reveals that there are significant differences before and after the Kyoto Protocol.