美國量化寬鬆政策對人民幣匯價之影響

Abstract

美國量化寬鬆政策對中國經濟影響反映在輸出了過量的流動性，流入中國追逐大宗物資商品、投資房地產，直接影響物價水準提升，形成輸入型通貨膨脹。量化寬鬆政策造成美元持續貶值與超低利率，對中國持有的龐大美元固定收益資產收入造成減損效果。龐大熱錢的進出，加大了匯率的波動，也增加了外匯管理上的難度。

金融海嘯後，人民幣曾面臨兩度較大貶值。接著發生歐債危機、美國財政懸崖問題，促使歐、美國家為處理自身財務問題已然焦頭爛額，甚至有求於中國龐大資金的挹注融資，週轉喘息。相對於歐、美國家衰退、緊縮，中國正從容以待，乘勢掘起，成為全球經濟成長的主要動力，重要性相形益彰。

U.S. quantitative easing impact on China's economy is reflected in the output of the excess liquidity, bulk goods into China to chase commodities, investment real estate, directly affects the price level increase, the formation of imported inflation. QE caused the weak dollar and low interest rates, a large U.S. dollar fixed income assets held in revenues caused by impairment of the China effect. Huge hot money in and out, and increase the volatility of RMB, but also increases the difficulty of the foreign exchange management.

After the financial crisis, the RMB has been facing greater devalued. Ensuing European debt crisis, the U.S. fiscal cliff caps are financial problems, prompting European and American countries to deal with their own financial problems already bruised and battered, and even has asked China to inject huge capital financing, working respite. Relative to European and American countries recession, austerity, China is calm pending and become the main driver of global economic growth.