中國大陸地區利率自由化過程及對商業銀行的影響

Abstract

2013年7月20日，中國大陸人民銀行放開了貸款利率限制，允許貸款利率實現自由浮動，這標誌著人民幣的利率自由化走出了實質性的一步，在未來一至兩年內，存款利率的自由化也將完成。這將會對整個大陸的金融行業造成巨大的影響。 本論文回顧了中國大陸利率自由化的過程，在對比美、日、拉美等國家利率自由化的歷程以後，提出了中國大陸完成利率自由化的一些條件和保障措施。通過對29個已完成利率自由化國家進行數據分析，得出利率自由化會提高存款利率、縮小存貸利差、加大利率波動，在極端情況下會對銀行傳統業務造成實質性的影響。選取大陸主要商業銀行最近5年盈利數據和風險相關數據進行分析，發現國有商業銀行擁有大量的風險敞口，利率上升將會對其造成一定的衝擊。但同時，在應對利率自由化的過程中，主要商業銀行都已經在積極轉型，不斷提高中間業務佔整體經營的比重。最後，本文提出銀行應該從管理、人才等方面積極改革，來應對利率自由化帶來的挑戰。而政府在同時也要加強制度方面的建設，一方面積極推動利率的自由化進程，另一方面也要出臺一系列配套設施，從而有效克服整個社會在金融改革過程中的所遇到的衝擊。

On July 20th, 2013, the People’s Bank of China in mainland had let go of the loan interest rate limitation, allowed a free float, marking a material step of the RMB interest rate liberalization; moreover, the deposit interest rate is going to be accomplished in one or two years, which will be a huge impact on the whole financial industrial in mainland. The thesis reviews the process of Chinese mainland interest rate liberalization. Comparing the history of interest rate liberalization in different countries such as the USA, Japan, and Latin America, this study concludes a number of conditions and security measures to achieve interest rate liberalization in Chinese mainland. The result on the analysis of 29 countries that achieved interest rate liberalization shows that interest rate liberalization will raise deposit interest rate, diminish interest spreads of deposit and loan, and increase interest rate uncertainty; under extreme circumstance it will cause substantial influence on bank’s traditional business. The thesis selects the profit data and the related risk data of Chinese mainland’s main commercial banks in the last five years, and discovers that with a mass of risk exposure, rising interest rate will cause certain impact on state-owned commercial banks. However, in the process of dealing with interest rate liberalization, the main commercial banks are transforming actively, continuously increasing the proportion of intermediate business in overall operation. In the end, the thesis puts forward that in order to cope with the challenge of interest rate liberation better; the bank should positively reform in management, human talent and so on. Meanwhile, the government shall enhance its system, on one hand, promoting interest rate liberalization positively; on the other hand, coming up with a series of supporting measures so that to overcome difficulties occur in the process of financial reform.