TSMC 2010-2014經濟附加價值及股價對應分析

Abstract

經濟附加價值(EVA)改善了一般公認會計原則之下所失真的部份，藉由調整項，而反映出企業真正的經營價值。本研究以台積電為個案，主旨為探討EVA與MVA及傳統財務指標三者之間互相的關係，以及優缺點，也進一步經由廻歸分析此三種財務方法對於預估股價的能力，期盼能藉由本研究建立一股價預估模型，給大眾作為投資策略之參考。 本研究結果為： 1.傳統財務比率對於股價之解釋能力較為薄弱，而EVA和MVA對於股價皆具有相當的解釋能力。 2.以預測模型之精準度而言，EVA之預測模型對股價之預測能力最高；傳統財務比率之預測模型對股價之預測能力最低。 3.以預測模型之相關性而言，MVA之預測模型的R2最高；傳統財務比率之R2最低。 4.企業經營者可藉由EVA來檢視或改善企業體質，進而提高企業經營和財務績效，並提昇股價，獲得投資人的青睞

After adjustments, Economic Value Added (EVA) can improve some portions which are distorted of financial report under R.O.C. GAAP and show a company’s real value. TSMC is an example of this thesis. The purpose of the thesis is to research the relations between EVA & Marketing Value Added (MVA) and financial ratios and also use regression analysis to research the predictable ability of stock price. Hope the thesis can build up a predictable model of stock price for investor’s reference. The results of the thesis are summarized as follows: 1.Financial ratios have lower explanation performance for stock price. However, EVA and MVA have proper explanation performance for stock price. 2.By using the view of the accuracy of predictable model, EVA has the highest predictable ability for stock price and financial ratios have the lowest. 3.By using the view of the correlation of predictable model, MVA has the highest coefficient of determination (R2) and financial ratios have the lowest. 4.Owner or high level managers can look inside and develop a company’s competition, even raise the company’s performance and stock price.