市占率導向的會員制定價策略 —以健身房為例

Abstract

健身房是以收取年費並採連鎖店方式吸引顧客的典型例子，本研究將以健身房為例提出市占率導向的定價策略，期能最大化市占率。此定價策略擁有三個特色：(1) 單年費用低，(2) 簽約年限長，(3) 採預付制度。例如，健身房提供年限五年合約，若顧客在簽約時將所有費用一次繳清，其單年費用僅為一般的50%。根據此定價策略，健身房在擴大市占率將有三個優勢：(1) 因單年費用低，可大量吸引顧客，(2) 因簽約年限長，可確保未來市占率，(3) 因採預付會費，可快速獲得大量現金流，得以快速展店擴大規模。根據此訂價策略，本研究針對交易方式進行建模，健身房與消費市場是兩個交易主體，其互動關係如下。健身房提出單年費用與簽約年限的合約(p,y)，市場則依此合約回傳會加入的會員人數(q)；藉由加入的會員數(q)，健身房可推算每年底的淨現金流及財報利潤，並依此作為展店的決策依據。本研究以變數(α)表示健身房展店的風險偏好，α值越高，代表展店門檻越高，亦即健身房的投資行為較保守。經由兩交易主體的行為假設，本研究將以最大化市占率為目標，建立一個定價展店的數學規劃模型，找出最佳的(p,y,α)，透過風險分析，此模型可合理解釋台灣一度知名的亞力山大健身公司從快速興起到無預警倒閉的過程。

This thesis presents a market-share-driven membership pricing strategy for gyms. Gyms typically charge customers by annual membership fees and operate in a chain-store manner to attract customers living in various locations. To maximize the market-share of a gym chain, the proposed membership pricing strategy has three features: (1) low annual fees, (2) long-term commitment, and (3) prepaying committed fees. For example, a gym-chain may offer customers a 5-year attractive contract in which the annual fee is only 50% of normal price if customers wholly prepay the 5-year membership fees at the time of signing the contract. By this strategy, the gym-chain has three positive effects on its market share: (1) attracting a substantial amount of customers by low annual-fee, (2) ensuring future market-share by long-term commitment, and (3) catching a huge amount of cash inflow for expanding the gym-chain scale. To effectively justify and implement the strategy, this research addresses the business decisions and interactions between two parties: a gym-chain and a market. The gym-chain offers a (p, y) option to the market where p denotes the annual fee and y denotes the committed years; and the market responds back with an amount of customers (q) who would like to accept the offer. The amount of customers (q) in turn yields annual revenue, cash balance and profit at the end of each year. Then the gym-chain shall decide whether to expand the chain scale. Herein, a variable (α) is used to model the risk preference of the gym-chain in investing a new store; the higher is α, the more conservative (risk-averse) is the gym-chain. Making assumptions on the behaviors of the two parties, we formulate a decision-making model in order to find an optimal (p, y, α) for the gym-chain to maximize its market-share. This model can be used to explain why a Taiwanese gym-chain called Alexander prospered so quickly and faded so unexpectedly.