以模擬探針車法進行號誌化道路旅行時間推估之研究

Abstract

提供正確的旅行時間，可以讓用路人事先規劃合適的路線、選擇使用的運具，以及決定出發時間，以達分散車流，紓解交通擁擠的目的。本研發展一套以虛擬探針車為基礎的旅行時間預測模式，無論是否具有號誌化路口，本模式均適用。本研究所提出的模式，會依據探針車前方路口的號誌，以及前方路口停等的車輛數、以及與前方障礙物的距離等資訊，決定探針車輛加減速的行為，並據此計算出所需的旅行時間。本研究利用實際的路網進行測試，並透過交通控制模擬軟體計算真值，同時在不同的流量情境下測試所提出模式。根據測試結果，本研究所提出的模式在各種不同的情境下均能有不錯的預測結果，尤其是在中低流量時，預測的結果更為精確。

Equipped with accurate travel time information, travelers could make smart and right decisions regarding departure time, carrier choice, and route selection to avoid being trapped in the traffic jams. This research proposes a virtual probe vehicle travel time prediction model for this purpose. This model can be implemented on any road segment with or without signalize intersection. This proposed model determine the behavior of probe vehicle, such as accelerating and decelerating, based on the signal status, queueing length, and the distance to the obstacle. The travel time can be obtained by calculating the time spent by the probe vehicle. This research tests the robustness and accuracy of this model on the real world arterials. A traffic flow simulation software is adopted to yield the true travel time for comparison purpose. Based on the testing results, the performance of the proposed model is accurate under various scenarios, especially when the traffic flow is not high.