空運業者考慮現貨市場之艙位購買策略

Abstract

此研究探討航空貨運業中的艙位交易行為，特別是研究貨運代理人(forwarders)與託運商(carriers)如何在考慮以合約預先交易與由現貨市場(spot market)交易的情形下進行決策。我們提出一分析架構與模型，同時考慮合約、現貨市場以及不可儲存的特性，並分別分析固定購買合約(fixed-commitment contract)和選擇權合約(option contract)下的決策結果。 數值案例分析和文獻結果顯示選擇權合約對雙方都有好處，這和過去供應鏈契約文獻結果一致。此外我們進一步發現價格對供給/需求的敏感度會影響雙方的利潤，但其影響方式和艙位總供給量相關：當供給可能大於需求時，價格對供給/需求較敏感會增加貨運代理人利潤但對託運商有害；但當需求可能大於時供給，會導致相反的結論。

Motivated by a real case, this study investigates space trading in the air cargo industry. The objective of this study is to analytically investigate space trading decisions considering the interactions between spot market and contracts in the air cargo industry. In particular, we develop a styled model that is able to characterize a closed spot market, contracts and non-storable properties of air cargo industry for the analysis. We study the fixed-commitment and option contracts. The numerical analysis results show the option contract provide more profits to both the carrier (upstream) and the forwarder (downstream) by risk sharing. This finding is consistent with the literature. In addition, the price sensitivity of supply/demand affects the profits of both side, but closely associates with the capacity installed. Higher price sensitivity of sup-ply/demand benefits the forwarder but is harmful to the carrier in both the fixed-commitment and option contracts when the supply is more likely to exceed the demand. However, we have an opposite conclusion when the demand is more likely to exceed the supply.