人民幣匯率分析 – 短暫或是長期貶值之探討

Abstract

人民幣的匯率為近幾年來國際上爭論不休的議題，有諸多的聲音認為人民幣應該開放由市場決定其價值；然而也有眾多學者認為人民幣應保持現狀，並隨著整體政經局勢的改革演變再逐漸開放。然而在2014年初，人民幣出現近幾年來罕見的貶值，加上該年初中國多項經濟數據出現衰退，市場開始質疑人民幣是否將走向貶值趨勢。 本研究主要根據2014年初人民幣開放波動區間後造成的貶值現象做討論，依據其國內外政經現況的轉變進行探討，試圖透過經濟理論模型推導，此波人民幣貶值係為短期的走貶或是長期的趨勢。

In recent years, there has been intense international debate over the RMB exchange rate. Many voices argue that the renminbi should open up and allow the market to determine its value; however, there are numerous scholars who believe that the renminbi should maintain the status quo and follow the reform of the evolution of the overall political and economic situation before gradually opening. However, in early 2014, the renminbi experienced devaluation, rare in recent years, coupled with the beginning of Chinese economic data recession, and the market began to question whether the renminbi would move toward a trend of depreciation. This study, based on the phenomenon of early 2014 after the devaluation of the RMB interval fluctuations caused by an open discussion, according to its domestic and international political and economic exploring changes, tries to apply a model derived through economic theory and determine whether this wave of devaluation is a short-term or long-term trend.