技術交易廠商評價模式之研究

Abstract

技術交易中，技術價值的評估一直是廠商決策的關鍵，本研究針對廠商的交易決策作深入研究，藉由專家訪談與文獻回顧歸納出一些影響技術價值的因素，並調查專家是如何評價這些影響因素，藉此了解哪些因素是真正影響技術價值，同時也了解因素間是否有相互關連性。 本研究藉由了解廠商技術交易相關影響因素，並將廠商風險態度以預期偏好效用與移轉機率曲線呈現，同時藉由折算現金流量法(Discounted cash flow method，DCF)來評估技術價格累積曲線，再整合該兩曲線以評估該技術合理價位。本研究將廠商類型依其風險偏好分成風險趨避、風險中立、風險偏好三類，並藉由層級分析法、模糊積分法來決定交易廠商的預期效用值，再依其偏好效用曲線來決定預期移轉機率與技術合理價格。 所提出之模式以台灣某技術交易個案為例來做說明，並分析採用層級分析法與模糊積分法對價值預測的差異。實證發現採用層級分析法所評估出的效用值較高，原因在於各因素間具關聯性，此法較適合用於技術的汰選與初步評估或買賣雙方急欲移轉而不考慮損益情形下使用。模糊積分法則較適合運用於買賣雙方考慮彼此損益下的技術移轉價值的評估，而兩種方法所得的區間即為廠商合理的技術價格區間，而模糊積分法修正過後的技術價格因有考量到因素間的關聯性影響，所以較能反映實際的情況。

It is always the key factor for evalution of technology value to make decisions between firms in the technology transaction. This study focused on transaction decisions of firms, and concluded some factors of affecting technology value with conducting in depth interviews of the experts and literature review. Moreover, it is how to evaluate these affecting factors for investigating the experts to understand whose factors affect technology value in reality as well as whether there are reciprocal relation among factors or not. This study realized related affecting factors of technology transaction of general firms, and presented the position of firms risk by two methods: Expecting Preference Effect and Chance of Transfer Curve. The referral reasonable price of technology is calculated by the proposed method that integrates the Chance of Transfer Curve and Price Accumulation Curve, and Price Accumulation Curve is generated by Discount Cash Flow (DCF) method. In this study, firms are primarily categorized into three groups by their risking preference: Risk Averse, Risk Neutral and Risk Loving. Expecting Preference Effect of firm is determined by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Integral Method (FIM) according to which the firm being concerned belongs. The proposal method was explained in detail by introducing cases of technology transaction in Taiwan. We discovered that the referral reasonable price was larger when using AHP in the analysis process due to that the factors of affecting technology value were related to each other. Furthermore, it was reflected actual condition comparatively with using FIM to adjust technology price since it considered reciprocal relation among factors.