時間差別定價對台北捷運乘客旅運行為之影響

Abstract

台北捷運系統目前尖、離峰票價相同，導致尖、離峰旅運量相差甚大。尖峰時段人潮眾多，捷運系統承載量供給不敷需求，產生特定路線或車站相當擁擠的現象，甚至影響乘客安全。離峰時段運量卻相對較少，使得捷運系統容量未能有效利用。藉由時間差別定價策略，在尖峰時段向乘客收取較高的票價，或是離峰時段收取較低的票價，將部分尖峰乘客移轉離峰時段，可平衡尖、離峰旅運量，以改善尖峰時段的擁擠現象。時間差別定價分為離峰票價降低或尖峰票價提高兩種策略作討論。本研究主要目的為構建捷運旅運者搭乘時間及運具的選擇模式，以瞭解台北捷運系統若實施尖、離峰時間差別定價，民眾選搭捷運的意願以及移轉至其它運具的情形。 本研究蒐集敘述性偏好資料，以捷運票價、班距、列車內擁擠程度等三個屬性，模擬時間差別定價策略。離峰票價降低情境探討乘客搭乘捷運時段的選擇行為，替選方案包括維持原尖峰時段搭乘捷運、提前至離峰時段搭乘捷運、延後至離峰時段搭乘捷運等三個方案。尖峰票價提高情境探討乘客搭乘捷運時段及運具選擇行為，替選方案除了三個搭乘捷運的方案外，再加上改搭公車及改騎機車，共有五個方案。利用電腦式問卷訪問捷運尖峰乘客的搭車時間及運具選擇情形，並蒐集社會經濟特性及旅次特性資料。 多項羅吉特模式校估結果顯示，捷運票價、捷運班距、捷運列車內擁擠程度、時間移轉、旅次目的、彈性工作時間、旅次頻率、公車或機車旅行成本、旅行時間、搭乘捷運前後接送家人、個人每月所得、捷運費用為公費、家中擁有機車數等解釋變數，會影響乘客搭乘捷運時段及運具的選擇行為。尖峰票價提高的巢式羅吉特模式結果顯示，上層為運具選擇，包括選擇捷運、公車、或機車，下層為搭乘捷運時段的選擇，包括維持原尖峰時段搭乘捷運、提前至離峰時段搭乘捷運、延後至離峰時段搭乘捷運等三個方案。 彈性分析顯示捷運乘客對於捷運票價的改變相當敏感，其中尖峰提高票價比離峰降低票價策略更會導致尖峰乘客改變搭乘時段或運具，不同旅次目的之乘客具有不同的旅運特性。進行市場占有率模擬分析，當離峰票價降低25%時，約有九成的尖峰乘客會維持在尖峰時段搭乘捷運，10%會改至離峰時段搭乘，以提前至離峰時段搭乘為主；當尖峰票價提高25%時，約有67%的乘客會維持在原尖峰時段搭乘捷運，7%的乘客會改變搭乘捷運的時段，另外約有四分之一的乘客會改變至使用其他運具，以改搭公車為主。時間差別定價策略能有效平衡捷運尖、離峰運量，減緩尖峰擁擠現象，但可能會減少捷運票價收入。本研究最後建議相關單位研擬時間差別定價策略時，應審慎評估尖、離峰票價的漲跌幅度以及尖、離峰時段的訂定。

The overcrowded phenomena recurrently existing at some stations and line segments in Taipei Metro during peak hours have seriously deteriorated the service quality and even caused the safety problems. In view that the ridership of Taipei Metro is still low during off-peaks, introducing temporal differentiation fares so as to shift partial peak demands to off-peaks might be promising to mitigate the overcrowded phenomena. Imposing peak surcharges or offering off-peak discounts can be considered in designing the temporally differential fare schemes. The main purpose of this study is to investigate how the Taipei Metro passengers would most likely to change in times of using the Metro and/or probably shift to use other modes, should the temporal differentiation fares be initiated. An interactive computer-based face-to-face interview was conducted to survey the stated preference data of the existing Metro passengers from the major stations. Users’ trip characteristics, socio-economic characteristics, and time of travel and mode choice were collected under various combinations of differential fares, headways and degrees of crowdedness. The off-peak discount scenario includes three alternatives – remain to use the metro at peak, take the metro before or after the peak; while the peak surcharge scenario includes five alternatives – remain to use the metro at peak, take the metro before or after the peak, and change to use bus or motorcycle. The choice behaviors are examined with multinomial logit (MNL) and nested logit (NL) models. The MNL estimation results indicate that metro fare, headway, degree of crowdedness, time penalty, trip purpose, flexible working hours, travel frequency, total travel cost and time for bus and motorcycle, pick up someone, personal income, motorcycle ownership are significant factors influencing the choice for times of traveling and modes. The best NL estimation results for peak surcharge scenario show that the upper nest would include Metro, bus, and motorcycle and the lower nest under the condition of using metro would consist of taking metro during, before and after the peak. Elasticity analysis indicates that the Metro users are sensitive to differential fare levels. Either peak surcharges or off-peak discounts can lead to a manifest changes in time of traveling and modes, especially for the peak surcharge scheme. The market share analysis further shows that about 90% of the peak passengers will remain at peak and only 10% will shift to off-peaks, provided that off-peak fares are 25 percent off. In contrast, if the peak fare is raised by 25 percent, 67% of the peak passengers will remain at peak, only 7% will shift to off-peaks and another 26% will change to use other modes (majority to bus). The findings of this study support that temporal differentiation fare schemes could be effective in easing the peak-hour overcrowded phenomena, however, they would also result in a decrease in fare-box revenue.