标题: 以突变理论分析选举行为—台湾两千年总统大选
An Application of Catastrophe Theory to the analysis of Taiwan Presidential Election in year 2000
作者: 王怡珺
Wang, Yi-chun
毛治国
Mao, Chi-kuo
经营管理研究所
关键字: 突变理论;总统大选;选举行为;策略性投票;Catastrophe Theory;Presidential Election;Voting Behavior;Strategic Voting
公开日期: 2004
摘要: 本研究目的在于将突变理论应用在投票行为分析。透过研究建立出的突变选举行为架构,用以分析两千年总统大选中所发生的两次重大变化—宋楚瑜兴票案使原本领先的局势变成三强鼎立的形势;另外在经过选举前不可公开民意调查资料的十天时间内,发生的事件使得弃保效应发生作用。
The purpose of this thesis is to present a well-grounded approach for explaining changes observed in the election affording practitioners an analytical method that can capture both nonlinear and multithreshold characteristics. To accomplish this objective, we present catastrophe theory representation of the relationships among two events happening presidential election of the year 2000. In the following sections we discuss, in turn, the conceptual framework construction, the catastrophe theory model, model dynamics under catastrophe theory with an illustrative example, and the strategic implications of this perspective.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009237502
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/77260
显示于类别:Thesis


文件中的档案:

  1. 750201.pdf

If it is a zip file, please download the file and unzip it, then open index.html in a browser to view the full text content.