相對常數原則在中國媒介消費的驗證

Abstract

中國從70年代末期，改革開放以來，不論經濟或政治都遭受到重大的變革演進，而經濟的發展也帶動了媒體的成長以及廣告投資逐年的劇增，這些現象的背後是否存在著某種定律呢? 本篇文章乃是建立在相對常數原則下，針對中國媒介廣告市場的所做的實證分析，以1981年至2003年間不同媒體廣告量與四項總體經濟指標作為分析對象，目的除了檢驗相對常數原則在中國是否受到支持以外，且以統計結果來審視近二十多年來媒體廣告量與國家經濟發展的互動影響。

This study is to test the time-trend and income-share hypotheses in China. Due to the different characters in China’s situation, this article goes beyond the principle of relative constancy (PRC) by testing some new models of advertising expenditures using 1981-2003 Chinese data. Unlike the traditional PRC models, these new models contain additional regressors which are more useful for China and lagged form. In China, GNP is a good predictor of changes in advertising expenditures. GNP can be proven in all mass media and total advertising expenditures. Clearly it is equally important to run regression analysis with individual categories of mass media expenditures as it is with GNP. The fact that lagged advertising expenditures (Adt-1) was found to be good predictor for some of the regressions such as TV and magazine.