營建產業景氣指標與營建公司存活機率關係之研究

Abstract

摘要 根據內政部營建署調查資料顯示，台灣營建相關產業近十年的經營環境，建築物建造執照總核發件數與樓地板面積曾經一度減少67％，但國內營造廠商家數由民國八十二年的3911家，增至民國九十一年的12513家。受國內景氣大幅衰退、股市重挫、銀行緊縮銀根，而勞工及建材成本卻又逐漸增加，對營建業而言，不但財務調度拉出警報，營運也備感壓力。再加上加入WTO後，外商進入國內市場，勢必對本國小型營建商造成排擠效應。 營建業的營運狀況易受到景氣循環波動的影響，景氣擴張時市場需求量大，營建公司推案及接案的件數成長，營收比例自然會提高，原則上營運風險應該會隨著景氣擴張而降低；但是此時的競爭對手數量也急遽的增加，所以還是會對營運風險有某些程度上的影響。至於景氣收縮時，市場需求的急速減少，案件的毛利隨著競爭劇烈而減少，營建公司必須在本業以外牟取更高的獲利，因此有將經營模式轉型的趨勢。 在營建業大變動的環境中，各營建公司為了要提升收益率，降低營運風險，通常在公司成長到一定的階段後，紛紛的轉型或是多角化延伸經營觸角，邁入新的事業領域，由單一事業體成為多元事業體，而形成企業集團。例如傳統的營造廠開始走向自行推案，跨足建設公司的事業，或是參與BOT以及公共建設案；而建設公司則成立子公司跨足營造事業，降低成本並增加營收。而有跨足其他產業類型的營造建設公司均歸類於綜合營建業。 本研究採用比例危險模型（PHM）對營建公司的營運進行存活分析，以目前有上市上櫃的營建公司依其公司主要營收項目分類為營造公司、建設公司及綜合營造公司為觀察的有效樣本，並加入景氣指標的因素，進行不同類型的營建公司對於景氣循環的變動下，能夠存活下來的機率，藉此觀察營建業轉型及多角化經營是否能有效的降低營運風險，並以此結果擬定營建公司未來在經營策略上的方針，以朝向增加營收比例，並能降低營運風險為目標。

Abstract According to the survey of Construction and Planning Agency, Ministry of Interior: the environment of the construction industry and related industries in recent ten years in Taiwan showed that the approvable license of building and the areas of floors once decreased 67％,but the construction factories in Taiwan increased from 3,911 in 1993 to 12,513 in 2002. Because of the deep slump of civil boom, the decline of stocks, the decrease of money in banks, and the increase of labors and stuff, the financial condition was difficult and the operation bore great pressure for construction industries. Besides joining WTO, the entering of foreign business into civil market absolutely caused crowd out the civil small construction business. The operative condition of construction industries is easily influenced by Business Cycle. Business Cycle is dilated, the need of the markets is large, and the number of cases of construction firms is dilated, so the percent of benefiting is increasing naturally. In principle, the risks of operation are decreasing when the boom is dilated; the opponents are increasing at the same time, which has some influence on operation. When the boom declines, the need of market will decrease rapidly. As a result of serious competition, gross margin of cases decrease, so construction firms must get higher benefit from other places, which will transfer operation into different types. In the environment of changing of construction industries, each company growing up to some stage will change its operation type or develop other sides to get more benefit and low risks of operation. In this condition, companies will enter new business areas, become multiple business from mono-business, and finally form conglomerates. For example, traditional construction factories begins to make plans by themselves, strides across the business of construction firms, or join BOT and public construction business; construction firms sets up branches to stride across construction business to low the price and get more money. Those which stride across other business types are referred to comprehensive construction firms. This research uses Proportional Hazard Model(PHM) to analyze the operation of construction firms, use the effective examples- the listed companies which are distributed into construction firms, real estate developers, and comprehensive construction firms, consider the facts of business indicator to anticipate the probabilities of those business when they are in the changing of business cycle, and observe if the changing of construction business and multiple operation can low the risks of management. Finally, use the result to plan the strategy of construction firms in the future, to get more benefit, and low the risks of operation.