決策輔助系統在企業的應用 - 以某企業為例

Abstract

隨著網路時代之來臨，資訊之取得愈來愈快速且便捷而且不再受到國界或是區域的限制，打破傳統供應鏈之群聚方式，例如某品牌產品之設計在流行前衛的A國、原料採購在材料科技發達的B國、製造組裝則在廉價人力的C國、進行全球之行銷販售。企業在面對全球化的浪潮下，面對的不再是區域性的競爭者而是國際級的製造商，該如何變革才能符合市場之需求且能因應供應鏈之轉變成為不可或缺的一員，企業決策之正確與否將是未來生存的關鍵。但是，決策過程中除了有許多相互關連的不確定因素外，在多人的決策中因部門或工作背景的不同，通常有不同的決策準則，因此決策之複雜度相當高。如何衡量這些不確定因素，溝通不同背景之決策者的意見，整合出相同的決策準則，在一致的決策框架結構中，建立團隊的決策模式，以選擇出最佳方案或改善後的最佳方案，如果僅單靠企業經營者之個人經驗或參考同業的營運結果，是沒有決策品質可言。而不良的決策品質除可能失去獲利的機會，亦可能造成企業生存危機。本研究的目的是希望建構一系統化的決策過程，利用實際數據和圖形之表現方式，並結合清晰易懂的分析軟體（如：關聯圖、敏感度分析、決策樹、…等），提供企業一個更好的專案分析方法，以提升公司之決策品質進而增進企業之整體利益。

Because of the convenience of web, information is obtained more and more fast and easily without boundaries, the traditional supply chain model is changed. It need global management, such as, product designing in the developed countries, raw material purchasing in countries with high tech, product assembling in countries of low-priced manpower, and selling to all over the world. In the wave of globalization, enterprises face the international but not sectional competitors. The decision making will be very important, that how to change to fit the need of market and being an important role. However, in the decision-making process, there are lots of uncertain factors which are connected with each other. Because of the difference between the departments or working background, the principles of decision making are different, and then cause the complexity of decision making. How do we measure these uncertainty factors, communicating the difference between different backgrounds, and combine all of them into a best solution? It is not professional to make a decision by personal experience or the experience in industry. At the same time, and bad decision quality might lose the chance of profit, might cause enterprise’s crisis, too. In this research, we propose a systematic decision process integrating with analysis tools (such as influence diagram, sensitivity analysis, decision tree, etc.), to provide managers a better way of managing programs. The result will improve the decision quality and increase company’s total potential value.