跨國科技競爭力之評估與預測研究

Abstract

在知識經濟時代，科技競爭力將是帶動國家經濟發展重要的關鍵因素，因此瞭解世界各國在科技創新發展過程中，資源運用的相對效率與效能，將有助於國家科技政策制定，與資源分配之參考。

本研究的主要目的在於建立一個客觀性評比的架構與方法，來探討科技競爭力，並對「科技發展相對效率與效能」進行量化實證研究。研究者從整體性的觀點，以國際知名的IMD全球競爭力報告書為研究基礎，建立評估科技競爭效率與效能之指標與研究數據，應用資料包絡分析法理論，從科技發展投入與產出面來觀察從1993年到2008年，16年以來，全球50多個國家，在科技競爭相對效率與效能之比較、轉變與發展趨勢，為全球科技發展歷程進行實證紀錄，並進行比較研究。研究結果期望建立世界各國、G7、東亞等區域群組之相對科技競爭效率與效能，並瞭解各國長期的科技效率與效能的差距，同時建立灰預測模型，預測未來科技發展，以助於各國政府科技資源運用與政策之制定。

In this era of knowledge-based economy, the science and technology competitiveness is the key factor that will boost the country’s economy development. Therefore, it is an important issue to understand the relative efficiency and effectiveness of the resource operation of countries all over the world in the course of developing in science and technology innovation. And the outcome of such research could serve as a basis of reference for a country’s science and technology policy-making and resource allocation.

The purpose of this paper was to establish a structure and approach to objectively evaluate the science and technology competitiveness, and to quantify “the relative efficiency and effectiveness of the science and technology development”.

This paper was based on the indicators and statistical data of the IMD’s world competitiveness yearbook, and applied the DEA theory to evaluate and analyze the relative efficiency and effectiveness of the science and technology competitiveness, change and the trend of development in more than 50 countries during 16 years, from 1993 to 2008. It also aimed at finding out the difference of the long-term relative efficiency and effectiveness between each country’s, including the G7 states and the East Asia countries. Meanwhile this study also applied the moving grey forecasting method to predict on the science and technology development in the future so that each government could be assisted in their science and technology policy-making.