洪水災害風險證券化之研究-以淡水河流域為例

Abstract

近年來全球氣候之變遷，導致颱風洪水等巨大災害影響人類生活甚劇，更由於台灣是海島型的國家，每年皆遭受颱風洪水之侵襲，保險公司亦可能必須付出巨額賠償金以補助人民遭受之損失。但洪水災害一旦發生，通常可能具有不可回復性的損失，因此保險公司可能面臨理賠金額龐大而導致公司資金在短期內面臨巨大衝擊，本研究參考資產證券化之架構，設計洪水災害風險證券，利用金融市場風險移轉之功能，將洪水災害之風險轉由金融市場投資人承擔，降低對受災人之財務衝擊。藉由水利工程之理論，考量洪水災害風險之不確定性，分析洪水災害發生造成之可能損失，以估計洪水災害風險證券之發行量。本研究結合水利工程與財務金融之專業知識，創新洪水災害風險之管理，並提供金融業對新金融商品設計的參考。

Due to the fast change in the climate, the damages caused by typhoon and flood have great impacts on human's life, especially for people in Taiwan where flooding appears almost every year. Insurance companies may be unable to function as the loss is too big to assume. The purpose of this study is to apply the principle of asset securitization to design the security for transferring the flood damage risk to the investors in the financial market. Using hydraulic theory and analyzing the probability and risk of the flood, I estimate the loss of the flood damage and calculate the issuing amount for the security. The result of the study should be useful for financial institutions to design new instruments and to manage the flood damage insurance problems.