對外投資對廠商國內營收、固定投資和員工僱用的影響－以台灣上市公司為例

Abstract

本文研究1997年至2004年，我國上市公司投資中國和已開發國家，對母公司營運的影響。並根據Chen and Ku(2000)的分類，將前者視為「防禦型」投資，後者視為「擴張型」投資。 我們首先研究影響廠商對外投資的因素。本文考慮政府於1996年對中國採取「戒急用忍」政策，至2001年改為「積極開放、有效管理」政策，兩次政策的改變對廠商投資中國的影響。實證顯示，政府開放廠商對中國投資後，使原本受限制的產業對中國累積投資金額占股本的比重，相較於不受限制的產業，有顯著的增加。再來，本文利用「政策改變」作為廠商投資中國的工具變數，以Panel Fixed GMM的方式衡量對外投資對廠商「國內營收成長」、「國內固定投資成長」，以及「國內員工僱用人數成長」的影響。實證發現，廠商投資中國對上述三個變數皆為負向顯著的影響。這表示廠商投資中國不但會降低母公司營收成長、減低對國內固定資產的投資，更會使其減少僱用國內員工人數。因此，我們可以推論，廠商對中國投資可能會造成國內「產業空洞化」。

This paper examines the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on firm growth based on Taiwan's listed companies’ data from 1997 to 2004. According to Chen and Ku(2000), FDI can be grossly separated into two types. One is expansionary, whereby firms invest in a developed country. The other type is defensive, whereby firms invest in China. First, we investigate the determinants of FDI and take the change of the policy into account. Taiwan’s China policy shifted from the “no haste, be patient” to the “proactive liberalization with effective management” during 1996 to 2001. Empirical results show that the ratio of common stock to cumulative FDI of limited industries increases significantly after the shift of the policy.And then, we examine the effects of these two types of FDI on growth performance of investing firms. Because the condition of independence of regressors dose not hold, we take the change of Taiwan’s China policy as the instrumental variable and estimate the regressions by Panel Fixed GMM. Firms investing in China are shown to weaken the sales growth, fixed assets growth, and labor growth of investing firms at home. Consequently, we conclude that firms invest in China may cause industrial `hollowing-out'.