諾貝兒寶貝公司合併新店的財務評價方法

Abstract

本文探討台灣一家連鎖藥局合併新店的評價方法. 該連鎖藥局允許兩種所有權型態的門市店同時存在; 一種是完全由公司擁有的直營店, 一種是獨立註冊的獨立店. 獨立店主要還是由主要股東按比例投資但保留相當部份由該店員工參與投資; 因此其財務為獨立於母公司之外的. 除此之外其採購後勤支援, 管理系統, 員工訓練, 品牌行銷等則與直營店無異. 獨立店若經營符合公司期望, 則經過合理的評價後, 在該店投資者同意下, 即可被母公司合併. 如此作法有雙重目的, 一者近似內部創業, 提高員工衝勁; 二者確保母公司的直營店皆是績效優良的. 因此如何有效客觀的評價一家獨立門市店至為重要. 因為母公司獨立店與直營店的經營內容, 目標市場極為類似, 同質性沒有問題, 適合用相互比較法來決定價格. 而經本研究發現最終要比較的是其淨利率. 經驗顯示門市店的淨利率起伏甚大, 不適合以單一年的淨利做為比價指標, 而應以前後數年之平均淨利率做為比計價基準較為穩當. 相對之下, 母公司是由為數較多的直營店組合而成, 其淨利之變動幅度較小. 本文接著探討幾種預估淨利的方法, 最後提出了間接預估淨利的結構分析法

A chained drugstores in Taiwan has implemented a strategy of expanding new stores by allowing employee internal ventures. This internal venture allows a store to be chartered independently as a separate company entity. It follows the same operating procedure and assumes the same logo. Its finance is independent of the mother company. After years of operation, the store is evaluated. If qualified, the store will be merged back to the mother company. A fair valuation of the store is crucial to the merger process, unlike the ordinary cases of intra-company transfer of assets. The valuation determines the price of the store employee-owner’s shares, which the mother company will buy back. The valuation can take advantage of the homogeneity among the franchised entities. The study has found out that the determining factor is the earnings of the store. And several valuation models are actually boiled down to the same one. However, there are extra considerations to be given to the valuation of a single store. One of the major considerations is the fluctuation of its earnings on year-to-year basis. The resulting earnings figure is to overcome such anomaly and provides sustainable value indicator. The forecasting methods tailored to this situation are presented with empirical data analyzed. Finally the forecast models’ performances are discussed in terms of Bias analysis.