2015年第四代行動通訊發展之情境分析

Abstract

1887年Heinrich Hertz發現了電磁波，1897年Guglielmo Marconi發明了無線電報，1907年，「收音機之父」Lee de Forest發明真空三極管，1920年無線電廣播開始，1933年電視及調頻 (FM) 收音機發明。1973年4月上旬，摩托羅拉的工程技術人員Martin Cooper站在紐約街頭使用無線電話打了史上第一通無線電話回實驗室，前後摩托羅拉花了十年的時間與10億美金的研發費用，才得以讓行動電話在1983年正式問世，而無線通訊技術的蓬勃發展也深深的改變了人類的生活方式。第一代行動通信系統為類比式，只能傳送語音；第二代行動通信系統：全球行動通訊系統GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications )、個人數位蜂窩電話PDC (Personal Digital Cellular)和cdmaOne(IS-95) 僅提供語音與低速的數據傳輸能力；第三代行動通信系統：WCDMA (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access)，cdma2000，TD—SCDMA (Time Division—Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access)，資料的最高接收速率也只能達到384Kbps；HSDPA (High Speed Download Packet Access)，可將WCDMA系統下行速率大幅提升，理論峰值速率可達14.4Mbps；而新一代移動通信，我們稱其爲超三代B3G (Beyond 3rd Generation Mobile Communication)或第四代行動通信(4G)，其資料傳輸速率遠大於第三代，如100Mbps。第四代行動通信(4G)以IP為基礎實現不同網路間的無縫漫遊，可預期新的應用將對人們的生活產生重要影響。目前全球人口約有65億人，手機用戶數去年突破20億大關，預期明年就可達到30億用戶，2010年達到40億用戶。全球手機用戶花了13年達到第一個10億關卡，第二個10億用戶在短短30個月就達成，2006年全球手機銷售亦達到了9.86億支。行動通訊大約每十年進行一次世代交替，而在2015年將進入第四代行動通訊的時期，本研究經由情境分析法歸納出影響未來第四代行動通訊數位生活發展狀態的兩個不確定主軸：業者價值創造與用戶接受程度。在此二大不確定主軸的蓬勃樂觀發展狀態與保守發展狀態的配合之下，本研究將探討四種不同的第四代行動通訊行動通信發展情境，並將針對此四種不同的發展情境進行數位生活情境描述，並將情境分析結果做出規劃導向、防禦性的策略，以作為輔助企業規劃未來的參考。

Heinrich Hertz found electromagnetic wave 1887. Guglielmo Marconi invented wireless telegraphy 1897. "Father of radio", Lee de Forest, invented vacuum triode 1907. Radio began to be used 1920. Television and Frequency Modulation (FM) radio invention 1933. In early April 1973, Martin Cooper, a Motorola's engineering and technical personnel, stood on the street in New York City and made the first call back to the laboratory by using mobile phone on the history. Motorola spent around one billion dollars and a decade of research on development. Their effort made mobile phones formally in 1983. The vigorous development of wireless communication technology also deeply changed the way people live. The first generation of mobile communication was Analogic. It can only transmit voice. The second-generation mobile communication system: GSM (Global System for Mobile Communications), PDC (Personal Digital Cellular) and cdmaOne (IS-95). It provided only voice and low-speed data transmission capacity. The third generation mobile communication system: WCDMA (Wideband Code Division Multiple Access), cdma2000, TD-SCDMA (Time Division-Synchronous Code Division Multiple Access). It only received the maximum data rate to achieve 384Kbps. HSDPA (High Speed Download Packet Access) can make WCDMA downlink rate to be improved significantly. The theoretical peak speed is up to 14.4Mbps. And the new generation of mobile communications we called Mr. B3G (Beyond 3rd Generation Mobile Communication) or fourth-generation mobile communications (4G), it is faster than the third-generation mobile communications. For example, it can be 100Mbps. Fourth-generation mobile communications (4G) uses IP as a basis for seamless roaming between different networks. We can expect the new applications will have an important impact on people's lives. Current global population is about 6.5 billion people. The number of mobile phone users are over the 20 million last year. Expected next year will reach three billion users and will reach 40 million users in 2010. Global mobile users take 13 years to reach the first one billion hurdles. The second one billion users reached this goal in just 30 months. Over all sales of mobile phone reached 986 million in 2006. Mobile communication gets into a generational change about every 10 years. We will enter the fourth-generation mobile communication in 2015. This study summed up two uncertain axes by using scenario analysis, which will influence future development of 4G. One is vendor value creation; another is user acceptance of the industry. In this second largest state of uncertainty spindle with the vigorous development of conservative optimism coupled with the development of the state. The study will examine four different levels of development of 4G mobile communication scenes. It will be aimed at those four different development situations and to proceed into digital living scenario. Based on the result, it will also come up the planning guide, defensive strategy to support enterprises planning for the future reference.