物流中心業者與貨運業者夥伴關係之風險分析

Abstract

物流業者因應客戶需求的快速改變、產品生命週期的縮短、存貨的降低，致使貨物的配送傾向於「少量、多樣、快速」的模式。規模大如UPS、DHL、FEDEX、TNT等全球性物流業者對此配送模式都力有未逮，而需加速投資或併購的行動，更何況區域性物流業者甚至國內物流業者除了技術及人才不足外，資金的缺乏亦嚴重影響服務規模的擴大。物流業者唯有透過分享與整合，才能創造出競爭力。因此尋求夥伴合作關係成為國內物流業者提供客戶解決方案的可行策略。 物流中心業者與貨運業者建立夥伴關係型態具有下列三種型態，其資源分配及合作模式如下: TYPE I : 兩業者各自運用自有資源，在人力、倉儲、運輸及資訊系統自行負責，不相互支援。 TYPE II: 兩業者部分資源相互支援，如人力及運輸相互協同運用，而倉儲、資訊系統仍自行負責。 TYPE III:兩業者所有資源相互支源，尤其在資訊系統共同開發及建置一個緊密串接的資訊流。 本研究經研究及分析後，求得物流中心業者與貨運業者夥伴關係得風險因子及其權重依序如下:資源及策略不適配，長/短期定位不一致，強度與彈性不足，競爭對合作的干擾。 然而三種夥伴關係型態對應此四個風險因子，產生的風險值由大到小排列分別是TYPE I > TYPE II > TYPE III。 最後經由蒙地卡羅模擬計算出三種夥伴關係的財務獲利，其中以TYPE II夥伴關係獲利最佳，但是將各風險因子的風險值納入確定等價方法計算後，TYPE III夥伴關係獲利超越TYPE II夥伴關係獲利成為物流中心與貨運業者最佳夥伴關係型態。

In order to meet customer’s requirement dramatical change, the Logistics Service Provider(LSP) ought to distribute the product in “low volume,high diversity,fast speed”manner。Nevertheless, the world largest LSP such as UPS、DHL、FEDEX、TNT could not conquer the challenge, if they freeze the step of investment and merging。Furthermore,the domestical LSP is not only lackness of skill and manpower, but also short of capital for expansion。Then,the only way to enhance competition is sharing and integration of resources with other party。 The type of partnership between Distribution Center Operator(DCO) and Truck Carrier(TC) are classfied as:. TYPE I: both parties serve customer by his own resource, they do not share any resource each other. TYPE II: both parties support each other with resource of manpower and transportation only. TYPE III: both parties full support each other on all resources. Especially,they use common IT system to reach seamless logistics information communication. In this study,the risk factors between DCO and TC are listed below: resource & strategic un-fitness,short/long term orientation un-balance,structural flexibility and rigidity un-balance,competition & cooperation un-balance. Besides, the order of value of risk factors are in sequence of TYPE I > TYPE II > TYPE III。 Finally, it is found that TYPE II partnership has the best financial out through the Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, we use Certainty Equivalence Method to evaluate the risk factor, then TYPE III partnership was selected as most profitable one among three type of partnerships.