領導廠商公布財報對同產業其他企業股價溢酬之影響-以TFT LCD產業為例

Abstract

TFT-LCD 產業為我國政府大力支持的「兩兆雙星」主要產業之一，我國TFT-LCD 產業發展現階段在全球佔有率達40%，第六代、第七代已陸續開始進入量產階段，相信該產業的發展成長將對於我國經濟產生深遠影響。在LG Philips掛牌後，全球主要面板製造廠商均已上市交易，透過定期財報資訊揭露，產業資訊透明度大幅增加，預期相關廠商公布訊息對彼此股價的影響將更顯著，因此本研究以國內TFT產業相關廠商為研究標的，進行股價異常報酬之分析以瞭解主要廠商公佈財報訊息對相關廠商平均異常報酬之影響。

本研究採用「事件研究法」，針對TFT相關廠商股價之平均異常報酬與累積平均異常報酬進行分析。針對友達在2003到2005年每年第三季公布盈餘及營運展望的事件，TFT相關廠商平均異常報酬的變化，實證此事件是否具有產業蔓延效果。並藉由LG Philips 2004到2005年每年第三季公布獲利的境外事件來觀察韓國廠商公布獲利是否對國內廠商股價造成跨國際的影響。而研究結果發現：

1. 國內TFT相關廠商對友達發佈正面財報訊息無顯著異常報酬。 2. 友達發佈負面財報訊息對國內TFT相關廠商產生負向的顯著異常報酬，而2005年的異常報酬相較於2004年之異常報酬不顯著。 3. LG Philips發佈負面財報訊息對國內TFT相關廠商產生負向的顯著異常報酬，且2005年的異常報酬相較於2004年之異常報酬顯著。 4. 國內TFT產業大致符合產業蔓延效果，而韓國廠商公布獲利訊息也跨國性造成台灣相關廠商的股價異常報酬顯著變動。

ABSTRACT TFT-LCD industry is one of the major industries fully supported by Taiwan government’s ‘two stars of two trillion dollar’ plan. After the listing of LG Philips, global major TFT-LCD panel makers are all listed in stock markets, significantly increasing the transparency of this industry’s information via timely release of financial reports. This study hence tests whether or not a leading company’s financial report announcement (such as Taiwanese AUO and Korean LG Phillips in the TFT-LCD industry) has significant impacts on peer companies’ average abnormal returns. This study uses the event study method to analyze the average abnormal returns and accumulated average abnormal returns of peer TFT-LCD companies’ stock prices from 2003 to 2005. Our major findings are as follows: 1. AUO’s positive financial report release did not have a significant effect on abnormal returns of peer TFT-LCD companies in Taiwan. 2. AUO’s negative financial report release had significantly negative impacts on abnormal returns of peer TFT-LCD companies in Taiwan. 3. LD Philips’ negative financial report release had a significantly negative impact on abnormal returns of peer TFT-LCD companies in Taiwan. 4. There is a significant contagion effect on stock prices in the TFT-LCD industry in Taiwan. This contagion effect can be generated both from stock price changes of leading domestic or foreign firms in the same industry.