遊憩區專案之開發時序決策模式

Abstract

遊憩區開發專案的時程經常長達數十年，其進度規劃決定了設施開發順序、組合及資源運用的效益，進度規劃中各項開發活動皆是專案價值鏈的一環。不當的開發策略與進度規劃將導致遊憩區開發專案的失敗。本研究首先探討主題樂園與渡假村等主要遊憩區類別，從中瞭解遊客與遊憩區設施開發營運的相互關係。此外，本研究考量各活動可為專案帶來之直接及間接期望價值，以專案淨現值判斷進度規劃方案的優劣。並以此為依據，提出整合模擬及遺傳演算法之模式，以模擬分析方式預測各方案之淨現值，並以遺傳演算法決定各期各項設施開發優先性。在遺傳演算法中，各期各項設施開發優先值以基因編碼代表，染色體中各基因值之組成即代表各種可能之開發策略。由於採用多倍體基因結構，因此本研究創新提出應用單位時間對應的交配方式改善了求解效果。進而以所建立之模式進行系統實作，經由案例的測試驗證其模式的良好效益。此模式可提供開發策略供投資者參考，在有限資金下決定各項設施之開發順序，以期提高其價值。

Most recreation areas are developed in multiple phases over a period of years. The portfolio and the development order of the facilities have a great impact on the attractiveness of a recreation area. Examples of such facilities are attractions, food service, accommodation, and supporting facilities. Some of these facilities although highly profitable, cannot attract visitors on their own, while others may boost the visitor count, yet by themselves do not make a profit. Some of the attractions, like a roller coaster, provide direct income; while some facilities, like roads, may not yield direct revenue but instead facilitate the smooth operation of the facilities that bring income. This research considers the value that the development of each facility brings to the project, and prioritizes feasible development plan alternatives based on their net present values. The proposed simulation model applies genetic algorithm to search the optimal portfolio and development order of facilities, and identifies the resources needed for each development phase. The resulting plan provides investors with systematic and quantitative information that will help them achieve more profits and reduces the risk of losing attractiveness or lacking resources due to poor planning.