由中國、日本、韓國技術前瞻經驗探討台灣技術前瞻運作流程之設計

Abstract

近年來為因應技術快速成長及全球化的種種變動與挑戰，許多國家大量採用技術前瞻作為政策規劃之工具，期望辨認未來能將社會利益極大化之新興技術領域，投入資源輔以發展。根據本研究調查，目前全世界推動前瞻活動的國家，有英國、德國、荷蘭、法國、日本、韓國、瑞典、澳洲、紐西蘭、西班牙、義大利等54個國家，共執行至少78項技術前瞻計畫(包含國家級及產業級)，所應用的前瞻方法有13種之多。成功的技術前瞻經驗固然值得學習，但各國需考量國家文化、創新體制、科技政策的不同，採取的前瞻方式也應根據國情而加以修正。本研究考慮地理位置相鄰、語言相近等因素，選擇中國、日本及韓國作為個案對象，藉由六個構面分析比較其技術前瞻計畫的經驗，同時透過專家意見的調查，發展台灣未來技術前瞻的流程。根據本研究調查的結果，前瞻動機方面，專家學者認為台灣已經不再具備以往的競爭優勢，因此必須尋找以創新為主的競爭優勢，同時，國家創新系統也急需一個有效運作的機制；對於台灣的前瞻目標，專家學者認為以經濟社會發展需求分析及關鍵技術選擇為目標較為適合；前瞻領域選擇方面，專家學者認為可以參考韓國及日本以開放式的問卷徵詢專家的意見，發展出適合台灣的領域選擇方式；前瞻時程方面，專家對於時程的設定多為15年及20年；前瞻發起部會，專家則認為應該由行政院來發起計畫，其中以國家科學委員會最為適合。最後針對前瞻流程方面，專家建議在前瞻先期階段，台灣應明確訂定前瞻目標及方向，建構前瞻組織，擬定前瞻流程及方法，透過資料收集及分析，確認技術清單，同時建構可能的情境，並設計德爾菲問卷以進行調查；在前瞻主體階段，進行德爾菲問卷調查，並同時進行情境分析，以產生策略選項，並篩選出最佳策略及搭配措施；前瞻後期階段，基於前一階段的成果以建構未來的情境，撰寫技術前瞻報告，同時提供對科技政策的建議，並建議政府協調產、官、學、研各界持續推動技術前瞻計畫。

Recently due to all sorts of changes and challenges of rapid technology development and globalization, more and more countries have adopted technology foresight as a tool for policy planning to expect to identify the emerging technology fields maximizing the societal benefits and to invest resources to help it grow up. According to the research, there are at least 54 countries promoting technology foresight activities internationally so far, such as United Kingdom, Germany, Netherlands, France, Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, Italy, …etc, in which there are at least 78 technology foresight projects (included national level and industrial level) and 13 kinds of foresight tools applied. The successful technology foresight experience is worth learning, but a country needs to modify the foresight approach according to its national conditions, such as the culture, innovation system, and the technology policy. Considering the factors as neighboring geographical place and language similarity, the research chose China, Japan and South Korea as cases to analyze and compare their technology foresight experiences by 6 dimensions, and then to develop the Taiwanese technology foresight process through the investigation of expert opinions. Based on our investigation results, at the aspect of motivation, experts thought the traditional competitive advantage was no longer effective, and Taiwan must find the innovation-based competitive advantage. Meanwhile, the national innovation system also needed a effectively operation model；about the objective, experts thought it’s more appropriate for Taiwan to set its goals toward the needs for the economic and society development and critical techniques selection； for the way to select fields, experts thought Taiwan could refer to the Korean and Japanese methods which requested the information from experts through open questionnaires, and developed the way suitable for Taiwan; at the aspect of time horizon, more experts agreed to set it as 15 years and 20 years; as for the units launching foresight projects, experts suggested the project should be launched by Executive Yuan, in which National Science Council was thought to be the most appropriate. Finally at the aspect of foresight process, experts suggested that at the pre-foresight phase, Taiwan should set definite goals and directions for foresight, build up foresight organizations, draw up the foresight process and methodology, confirm the techniques list by information gathering and analyzing, construct possible scenarios, and design the Delphi questionnaire; at the main foresight phase, firstly both Delphi and the scenarios analysis was initiated, which results could produce the strategic options, and then the best strategy and corresponding measures could be decided. At the post-foresight phase, the technology foresight committee would build up future scenarios based on the results of the pre-foresight and main foresight phases, write the technology foresight report, provide suggestions for technology policy, and suggest the government to coordinate industries, officials, schools and research institutes to proceed to promote the technology foresight project.