政府大陸投資政策對台灣股市本益比影響性之研究

Abstract

摘 要 Myers(1977)指出公司的股價可被分解成來自『現有資產所產生的盈餘現值』與來自『未來成長的機會的總現值』，意味著若是公司未來的前景看好，股票的內涵價值也隨之上升，於是可以了解到一家公司未來的成長性看好，必定會反應在高股價、高本益比上，所以若政府能提供良好的投資環境以及穩定且健全的產業政策，產業中的廠商未來的發展必定會有所幫助，進而對於台灣上市公司的股票評價也會有所提升。政府產業政策的訂定關乎到台灣廠商未來的發展方向以及競爭能力，同時也影響本國與外國投資機構的投資意願，對於整個產業層次的提升，有著不可輕忽的關鍵角色。故本研究主要探討政府投資管制政策的頒布對於台灣股市本益比的影響。

本研究樣本以1988-2005年不包括金融保險類股之台灣證券交易所股票上市公司為研究對象，所採用的數據資料皆取自台灣經濟新報資料庫，本研究延續Beaver and Morse (1978) 所使用的複迴歸模式，對於台灣上市公司進行實證的分析，研究其對大陸投資管制政策的頒布對於台灣股市本益比的影響性。實證結果發現國內股市本益比與政府對大陸投資政策的宣布是存在著反向的關係，意味著政府對大陸投資的限制政策會對股市本益比有負面的影響。

政府在過去五十年來對台灣企業發展一直扮演著關鍵的角色，同樣地在未來面對各國在大陸佈局競爭時，仍需有賴政府制定長遠以及有利於台灣企業的投資發展政策，以期能持續保持台灣廠商在國際市場上的競爭力。

Abstract Myers (1977) indicated that the stock price of a company is composed of ‘the present value of the earnings from existed total assets’ and’ the present value of the future growth opportunities.’ This means if a company is predicted to have a sound performance in the future, its stock price and P/E ratio will be higher. On the other hands, the government’s policies have great influences on a company’s stock prices as well. As long as the government’s policy is helpful to a corporation, the performance of that corporation will therefore be predicted as better, and the stock price will be higher. It can be said that the government’s investment policy plays an important role on the future competences of the corporations and the investment willing of domestic and foreign investment institutions. In this research, we discuss how the government’s investment policy affects the P/E ratio in Taiwanese stock market.

The listed corporations excluding financial and insurance are the study objects of this research. The numerical data from 1988 to 2005 was all collected from Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ).The analysis of the relationship between P/E and the government’s investing in China policy was based on the model of Beaver and Morse (1978). The result showed the negative relationship between P/E and the government’s investing in China policy.

In the past fifty years, the Taiwanese government has played a key role in industry development. Similarly, to face the challenge of multinational competitors extending their businesses to mainland China, the Taiwanese government should make the policy which is beneficial to the Taiwanese industry in order to maintain the competitiveness of Taiwanese corporate in the global market.