台灣融資順位理論之實証：縱橫資料研究

Abstract

本篇研究主要採用台灣上市公司的資料並以縱橫資料研究融資順位鋰論的實證性，選擇樣本的期間為1990至2005。樣本為台灣642家上市公司，縱橫資料共有8592筆，平均每家公司的資料有13.4年。與融資順位理論相牴觸的是，首先我們發現權益與融資缺口的相關係數很高，而且大量使用外部融資，融資缺口的路徑大致由權益所勾勒而非負債。除此之外，時間在融資順位理論扮演重要的角色，同時，不同產業的融資順位係數差異頗大，但是同樣產業裡的融資形態似乎差異不大。再者，發現到逆選擇不是融資順位理論最主要的考量，雖然融資缺口不是主宰負債發行的因素，但是融資缺口和其他傳統解釋因子一樣是顯著的解釋變數。

We test the pecking order theory on panel data of publicly-traded firms in Taiwan from 1990 to 2005. The unbalanced panel data contain 8592 firm-year observations consisting of 642 firms with an average of 13.4 years each of listed companies. In contradiction to the pecking order theory, the correlation between net equity and financing deficit is higher and external financing is more heavily used. Net equity issues track the financing deficit more closely than net debt do, and the time period plays a major role in the pecking order theory. At the same time, the pecking order coefficients are largely different across various industries and the result of the pecking order theory is that there is almost no difference in the same industry. Furthermore, the adverse selection is not the most important consideration for pecking order. The financing deficit is not the dominant variable to debt issuance but it has a statistically significant influence on debt financing.