兩岸三通對台灣股市的影響

Abstract

台灣經濟是海島型經濟，發展腹地十分有限。自80年代以來，隨著兩岸貿易、臺商到大陸投資以及農業、科技、金融等各種經貿交流與合作的迅速發展，兩岸經貿創造的效益不斷擴大，逐漸成為台灣經濟發展的主要動力。再者，由於兩岸之間一直都是政治領導經濟，雖然中國在1979年就提出兩岸能盡速開啟三通，但因彼此特殊的政治關係，致使遲遲未能直接“三通”，兩岸經貿關係長期停留在間接、單向為主的不平衡狀態。這不僅使台灣民眾和工商界蒙受了巨大的經濟損失，而且使兩岸經濟的互補互利效應遠未得到充分發揮。一直到2008年，台灣政黨再次輪替後，兩岸終於三通了，然而三通後，真如大家所預期能帶給台灣經濟上的更大發展空間嗎?股票市場的表現一向被認為一個國家經濟前景的櫥窗，因而藉由事件研究法探討兩岸三通此一事件是否對於台灣經濟有著顯著的影響。

The type of the economy in Taiwan is classified as Island Economy, that means, the hinterlands in Taiwan is limited. Thus the economy growth highly relies on exportation. Since 1980s, more and more businessmen of Taiwan have invested various kinds of industries in China, more and more of economical activities have spread up between Taiwan and China; such close interactions, thus, drives up economical growth in Taiwan. However, politic policies always lead the directions of economical development no matter in Taiwan or China, such situation leads the economical communication between the two sides were routed through intermediate destinations and the economical development between China and Taiwan is highly limited. The "Three Links" (direct postal, transportation and trade links between Taiwan and China) were officially restored on 15 December 2008. It is popularly believed that such historical breakthrough can bring enormous economical benefits to all industries in Taiwan. This research exploits the data of stock markets to identify if such a viewpoint is valid or not by means of Event Study.