标题: 应用类神经网路预测快闪记忆体价格之研究
Forecasting Nand Flash Prices by Neural Network
作者: 邓启民
Teng, Chi-Min
姜齐
Chiang, Chi
管理学院管理科学学程
关键字: 汇率;类神经网路;价格预测;股市指标;快闪记忆体;Exchange Rate;Artificial Neural Network;BPN;Pricing predicting;stock market indicator;Nand Flash
公开日期: 2008
摘要: 快闪记忆体Nand Flash 产业蓬勃发展了二十年,各式各样的应用带给人们更多的便利,并且改变了人类生活模式。1979年Sony 发明了第一台随身听,当初的人们正在为这神奇的新产品感到着迷的时候,谁能料想到三十年后,随身听不只能听音乐,还能显示歌词,无限录音,播放MTV,甚至有专属音乐下载网站。照相机,摄影机也不再使用底片当成储存媒介,不再为了储存回忆而付出昂贵的成本。笔记型电脑可以更轻巧更超薄, 有着更快速更强大的功能,真正让笔记型电脑更贴近人们的生活。这一切的演变都少不了这些身处Nand Flash产业中,各个努力不懈积极开发的厂商,假设地球上从没出现过快闪记忆体,我想很多人都不能否认,这世界将会有另一个改变。

对于各大Nand Flash原厂与下游模组商来说,虽然Nand Flash 潜藏商机无限,但是也同时存在着高风险,因为占销售之产品总成本非常高比例的Nand Flash 晶片是一个随时处于供给与需求不均衡状态的产业,任何的稍不注意,便可能造成无法弥补的损失,这代表着在这Nand Flash 产业里,有着几项特性:”成本非常竞争”、”价格波动剧烈”、”明显的景气循环”、”市场型态随着技术发展而随时调整”。

透过类神经预测模型,规划出一个可以预测未来Nand Flash 价格的方式,提供厂商在以经验法则判断的同时,能有多一些参考资讯。
The industry of Nand Flash has been growing for twenty years. Varieties of applications make human being more convenience and make changes in its life. Since 1979, Sony invented the first walkman in the world, while people crazy about such a amazing product, who can expect that after three decades: walkman is not only just a music player, it display lyrics when the song is playing, recording without limitation , playing MTV, even more it has own download web site. Camera and Video recorder use external memory device as the recording media, high cost for store memory is just a history. Laptop is simmer, more powerful features and easier to carry, makes it more close to people’s life. All the evolution brought to us by the people and enterprises who are dedicate in the field, I think everyone will admits that it is going to be a big different in the world if Nand Flash is never be shown.
Originals and module houses in the field of Nand Flash are all knows about the huge potential business opportunities, Even though, a high risky situation exists oppositely, because the Nand Flash is usual the components with high percentage share in cost is always in the unstable of supply and demand market situation, any inattentive may causes terrible loose. It means, there are some features in the field of Nand Flash:”extreme competitive in cost”、”pricing sharp fluctuations”、”obvious business cycle”、”market patterns are keeping changing by the technological development”.
This study try to work out a method through BPN for predicting the price of Nand Flash has not yet happened, to provide extra information except for rule of thumb to enterprises related to the industrial.
URI: http://140.113.39.130/cdrfb3/record/nctu/#GT009472520
http://hdl.handle.net/11536/82589
显示于类别:Thesis


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